Avik Roy on “Bitcoin and the U.S. Fiscal Reckoning”

Here is an interesting perspective in a Twitter thread from Alex Good, whose biography card identifies him as an "Options and crypto trader“ and who is followed by, among others, Marc Andreesson.

Click the link on his name to read the whole thread. One observation I found particularly interesting is item 7:

https://twitter.com/goodalexander/status/1454642362366496772

This is consistent with the big banks becoming increasingly involved in crypto. Part of this is driven by their clients seeking transaction processing, investment and hedging vehicles, and advice, but also from the proprietary trading side viewing it as one of the best-performing asset categories of the last several years. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and UBS (the largest Swiss bank) have all either set up crypto units or announced they are in the process of doing so. UBS put on a one hour video conference on crypto for their private banking clients last month. Given the extent the big banks jerk the chains of politicians, if they’re deeply involved in crypto and view it as a profit centre, politicians may be disinclined to try to shut it down.

Second, crypto is increasingly a source of taxation for governments, particularly those that tax “capital gains” on appreciation of cryptocurrencies versus their central bank kleptocurrencies. The current “infrastructure” bill apparently contains some more turns of the screw in this direction, although I’m not sure of the details since they’ve been changing so rapidly. If crypto is a significant source of tax revenue, politicians may not want to kill the goose that lays the blockchain taxes.

My guess is that what will happen is that in a few years the big monetary blocs will roll out their “central bank digital currencies” (CBDC) and promote them as a “better, safer form of crypto”, then try to co-opt the pioneer cryptocurrencies as they eliminate physical and anonymous cash. I wrote about this “slave money” here on 2021-10-10. As Mr Good notes, the big players may already be moving to Bitcoin and Ether as a way to get their assets out of fiat money before they are forced into a CBDC in a couple years.

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