Dugin Assassination & Internal State of Russia

Daria Dugina, the daughter of Alexander Dugin who defines Putin’s ideology (along with Ilyin), was assassinated professionally (the security cameras were disabled already two weeks ago). The responsibility was assumed by “National Republican Army”. This is a translation of their manifesto:

This information was relayed by Duma member Ilya Ponomarev who’s been living in Ukraine since 2016 and was the only Duma member to vote against the annexation of Crimea:
slika

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The obvious question is how Russian is the RNRA. We have recently seen some effective Ukrainian intelligence operations within Russia. Russia is presumably capable of responding in kind. Otherwise, we would not have seen Zelenskyy arresting so many “traitors”.

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I’m glad you posted this; it led me to read (on Wikipedia, so…:nerd_face:) about Dugin’s book “Foundations of Geopolitics”…Ei-yii-yii, I had no idea. I hafta say, I’m glad they didn’t get him, or we’d be seeing his face on icons being carried through the streets in Moscow.

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It is surprising that ISIS and the Gay Liberation Front are not clamoring for the credit for this murder. Standing back, the main observation has to be – a profound lack of competence on the part of the perpetrators: they attacked a very soft target (a minor figure with no serious security) … and botched the job.

Article from Asia Times suggests that (a) the media spin that Dugin is “Putin’s brain” is laughable nonsense, and (b) the lack of competence in execution makes it most likely that this was some independent actor (plutocrat, etc) hiring ordinary Russian criminals for a hit job – and going Low Bid too. Never, ever go Low Bid when hiring a hitman!

Facts don’t support Western spin on Dugin bombing - Asia Times

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At least The Sun did not blame Trump:

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The problem here is there are a fair few individuals and organizations who might want Dugin and/or his daughter dead.

  • Putin
    They had started harshly criticising the failure to conquer Ukraine. Dugin’s status is a bit weird. The “Putin’s Brain” claims are wrong, there are others who better fit that description. What he is, in my opinion, is the best living exemplar of a very old strain of Russian/Muscovite exceptionalism and pan-slavism.
  • Ukrainian Govt.
    Obvious. The problem is this is a ineffective target and the Ukrainian special ops has been pretty good at target selection up to now. If I had that kind of force available in Moscow, I probably wouldn’t be risking it by killing a vile political philosopher and his equally vile daughter.
  • Individual Ukrainians
    Also obvious and would explain the terrible target selection. You take what you can get if you have little resources available or are desperate.
  • Russian Elites
    There are rumours of dissent here. Someone could be clearing the decks or making a point.
  • Individual Russians
    There have been accidents of a most convienient nature across Russia. Some of these are special operations and some are dissenting Russians. This seems like much more than the usual active inactivity and creative carelessness but it wouldn’t be the first time in Russian history.
  • Other
    There are lots of other actors who would think Dugin’s looks would be improved if his head was separated from his shoulders. This includes most of the slavic areas of Europe. No one wants Russian “protection” after the last century.

I would take any FSB claims with the usual pound of salt. It wouldn’t be the first or last time they made shit up.
The Ukrainian govt will deny everything, whether it was them or not, to avoid escalation that might make Russians enthusiastic for full mobilization. This is actualy a reason that it probably isn’t them, operations are blown all the time and they are aware of the political issues doing this could cause. If you are going to risk this kind of backlash, it had better be a worthwhile target.

Edit: it occurs to me that a possibility pointing to Putin is if Putin wants to stir up the population to make full mobilization possible. Killing Dugin could do that and Putin loses nothing he personally cares about. It would be interesting to find out why Dugin changed cars. Against this is Putin has shown no visible interest in full mobilization so far.
Edit2: speeling

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Funny reference to the ‘pound of salt’. Here’s a forensic analysis of FSB’s evidence:

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Not a bad summary of a previous “bust” of alleged Nazis.

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As if the “purposeful stupidity” strategy was employed by the organization:

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All good points, jdougan. As is typical in the Ukrainian situation, we peons are faced with incomplete information and fairly extreme media bias. Short summary – we don’t know what is going on. Lets simply hope that Ms. Dugina does not become this generations Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

Mark Wauk attaches importance to the claim that the alleged Ukrainian murderer and her 12 year old daughter reportedly did a quick exit stage left to Estonia – where (reportedly) the English government has more military forces than the Estonian government, and London’s MI6 has a lot of sway.

Certainly, UK society and economy are in freefall, and the guys & gals in London are desperately seeking to change the subject – as shown by their astonishingly aggressive language seemingly seeking war with Russia. But the UK can’t do a war – the number of Kiev forces killed so far around the Donbas reportedly exceeds the size of the UK army. Thus they need an incident which will drag the US into an active belligerent role.

The bemused observer wonders – Where is the “Give Peace a Chance” crowd? Why are Our Betters pushing for war-war instead of jaw-jaw?

Brief Dugin Update - by Mark Wauck - Meaning In History (substack.com)

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