How Will It End?

History tells us that every conflict comes to an end eventually, one way or another. Yet there is little discussion about how the current conflict in the Ukraine might (or should) end – although it is definitely something worth thinking about due to the high potential for the situation spinning out of control.

Clearly, despite the initial propaganda, the conflict will not end with Kiev triumphant, pushing Russia out and reclaiming the Crimea and the parts of the Donbass which rejected Kievan rule 8 long years ago; that much is now obvious.

It is unfortunately easy to see how the conflict could end in the complete Mutual Assured Destruction of North America, Europe, and Russia in a brief thermonuclear war. E.g., a Danish-supplied Harpoon missile sinks a Russian ship in the Black Sea; Russia responds by dropping a non-nuclear hypersonic missile on the Danish parliament; NATO reacts; and the Western world comes to an end. Hopefully, our Betters will avoid that slippery slope.

Short of nuclear war, the most reasonable outcome would be a partitioned Ukraine, with Poland seizing parts of western Ukraine, Russia setting up Novorussia in the Donbas and extending west to Catherine the Great’s city of Odessa, while Kiev retains control of landlocked Rump Ukraine. But that would not necessarily be the end of the story.

It is possible there might be no formal end to the war, with a Korean-style +/- 600 mile long tinderbox De-Militarized Zone between Rump Ukraine and Novorussia, along with a continuation of the Western sanctions on Russia which are bringing such economic pain to Europe.

Perhaps the Ukraine might become the Palestinian Territories of Europe, with ongoing violence and a never-ending financial drain on Europe and the US. But what would happen when the downward financial spiral of the West reaches the point that our Betters can no longer subsidize Kiev?

Or there could be a genuine negotiated peace, although it is hard to see who could credibly play the role of honest broker to bring the sides together. A peace treaty might yield a de-militarized Rump Ukraine, internationally-supervised plebiscites throughout the former territory of the Ukraine to let the people choose their own futures, and US/EU lifting their sanctions to provide economic relief to Europe. A de-militarized Rump Ukraine would require international peacekeepers to ensure that both NATO and Russia stay out; China might accept that job.

The ripples from whatever happens in the Ukraine would continue to spread. Perhaps Europe would shift to a permanent war footing, with militarization of societies and Europe-wide conscription. Or perhaps European countries might instead abandon NATO, seeing it now as a source of danger instead of security. The EU could easily fracture and collapse. Some of the weapons the West has poured into the admittedly corrupt Ukraine are likely to be sold to terrorist groups, with grave repercussions across the world. Taiwan might observe the outcome and decide that discretion is the better part of valor by cutting a deal to rejoin China – putting the West’s supplies of high-end computer chips under Chinese control. As a consequence of the Western sanctions, an enhanced BRICS might put an end to the role of the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, causing economic chaos in a US no longer able to trade freshly-printed IOUs for essential imports.

In one sense, the conflict in the Ukraine is no more relevant to the rest of the world than was NATO’s 1999 war against Serbia. However, the resolution of today’s unfortunate situation in the Ukraine could lead to a better, more stable world – or could lead to a ghastly end to Western civilization. The subject deserves serious consideration, rather than the current mindless boosterism from each side.


I heard that Javelins are for sale in Syria for 15,000.

I think I heard it from the Doug Casey Takes YouTube channel.

Between the armaments left in Afghanistan and the weapons that will be laundered out of Ukraine, it is likely the US will get bit in the ass. It reminds me of a fictional (but probably historically true) story that starts with the French at Diem Ben Phu being shelled by the Vietnamese using US artillery captured during the Korean War.

The US government’s agencies get tapped out at anything beyond locating yachts to confiscate.


David P. Goldman (“Spengler”) has posted an article, “It Became Necessary to Destroy the Country to Save It”, at PJ Media which discusses the preventable tragedy of Ukraine and possible outcomes.

I argued in 2008 and on many subsequent occasions [that the] obvious course of action in Ukraine was to permit its people to vote for a divorce, as the Czechs and Slovaks did. Instead we elected to keep the NATO option open for Ukraine, knowing that this was a red line for Russia. Never mind that Putin is a wicked fellow; he is a predictably wicked fellow with a well-defined understanding of Russian national interest, and his response to Ukraine’s prospective NATO membership was entirely predictable.

After three months of nearly-unanimous media predictions of the collapse of Russia, it now appears that the Russian army is close to controlling the Donbas. Extricating it will be difficult if not impossible. The result, as Henry Kissinger suggested at Davos last week, will be (eventually) a peace in which Ukraine cedes territory to Russia. All the “don’t appease Putin-Hitler” rhetoric will simply make us feel shabbier when we make the deal. We should feel shabby. We screwed this up on the grand scale.

Our bathetic outpouring of sympathy for Ukraine served mainly to obscure the ugly fact that Russia has better strategic weapons than we do (hypervelocity missiles and the S-400/500 air defense systems). No doubt the Russian army is corrupt, as Western commentators aver, but not so corrupt by orders of magnitude as our Pentagon, which pays top dollar for obsolete weapons while Russia and China innovate. The Javelin and Switchblade and Stinger are fine toys, but the West remains in fear of Russian nuclear weapons–as well we should. The Biden Administration won’t sent long-range missiles to Ukraine because it fears, correctly, that Ukraine might use them to attack targets deep inside Russia and start a broader war.

I’ve argued for years that partition is the best solution for Ukraine, which never was a country but an amalgam of provinces left over from failed empires–Russian, Austrian, Lithuanian, Ottoman–cobbled together into a Soviet “republic” and cast adrift after the collapse of Communism. Lviv (Lemberg) was a German-speaking city, part of Silesia; before World War II a quarter of its people were Jews. Jews were two-fifths of the population of Odessa.

A fifth of the population, mainly in the East, are ethnic Russians; a tenth, mainly in the West, are Uniate Catholics, who have a special place in Catholic policy since the papacy of John Paul II. Ukrainian nationality is as dubious as Byelorussian nationality: neither of them had a dictionary of their language until 1918.

The country also is a basket case. At its present fertility rate (1.3 children per female), its 47 million people will shrink to only 15 million by the end of the century. There are presently 11 million Ukrainian women aged 15 to 49 (although a very large number are working abroad); by the end of the century this will fall to just 2.8 million. There were 52 million Ukrainian citizens when Communism fell in 1989. Its GDP at about $157 billion is a fifth of Turkey’s and half of Switzerland’s. Ukrainians want to join the European Union rather than Russia so they can emigrate. It is of no strategic, economic, or demographic importance to the West.


Spengler in 2014: "I don’t see Congress offering $15 billion to support Ukraine’s foreign debt as Russia did last month."

Even someone as brutally realistic as Spengler can get it wrong from time to time. Instead of $15 Billion to support Ukrainian debt back then, Congress now votes to spend about $50 Billion & counting on weapons for Kiev. Or maybe that is merely the impact of inflation over the last 8 years.

Perhaps the Ukraine is simply the canary in the coalmine. The real problem is the arrogance, stupidity, and corruption of our Political Class. If they were not screwing up the Ukraine, they would be screwing up something else. And there does not seem to be much we can do about those who are making decisions on our behalf.


We will not hear about it in the supposed “news” (actually propaganda barrage), but I must wonder how much of the weapons-gifts from the West are being destroyed - either as they cross the borders or upon arrival. There can’t be that many routes by which particularly heavy weapons are delivered. Surveillance technology being what it is, I can’t imagine the Russians are not watching for and targeting them. Expensive smoking and shattered ruins much of that $50 billion. No matter, the congress (sic) had its orgy of self-righteous indignation and spent our freshly-conjured-into existence (like the videos of the proton posted here) money promiscuously, as usual.


Well, US$ 15 billion to pay down Ukraine’s bottomless debt (US$129.9 billion as of 2020, 64.8% of GDP) just goes mostly into the coffers of foreign banks and international agencies, while a sweet US$ 50 billion in weapons will have to be replaced in the U.S. inventory with new purchases from defence contractors with facilities in every congressional district in the U.S. and lobbyists in every office in the Capitol. Which do you think Congress will prefer?


Sometimes we see something that should stop us dead in our tracks. The thoroughly corrupt & totally decrepit Ukraine is actually in a better financial position than the US, with its debt over 100% of GDP. Maybe the West should be asking the Ukraine for financial assistance?


“It” in the OP title refers to the Russia/Ukraine war. Another “it” just might come to an end first - as ominously documented here by Roger Kimball. Absence of equality before the law and of trust in structural (of society) public institutions will, inevitably, result in a violent “discontinuity”. I have a distinct sense of rising instability, that this could happen at any time. This is unprecedented in my lifetime (i.e. since the end of WWII).


That was a great, though depressing, article.
Oh, okay: it wasn’t “material” that Sussman lied and said he did NOT represent Clinton,Trump’s political opponent? If that ain’t material, what is?
Or, what Andy McCarthy said: they coulda tried to prove the FBI was complicit in the hoax, but that was a big hill, so they went with “he duped the FBI” but that didn’t work cuz the FBI a could say, “we knew it all the time!”

It’s disgusting.

Well, I bred a lawyer, and I can be proud of what she’s doing now as a Public Defender. Because, and I don’t care if you hate me for it: we have waaaaay too many people in prison.

But yet, since her last semester of law school was conducted at our dining room table (with me sitting in, why not? I paid! and I could use the refresher!) I also reluctantly (because it makes me sad) hafta admit that I don’t think there’s any such thing g as “law school” any more. Precedents are taught only to de-construct. It oughta be called “anti-law” school.


How will it end? How did VietNam end? The world gets bored and looks away. The communists transformed VietNam into a thriving market economy.

The only thing that worries me at all is that I think Bygone and the Damneds are using this to bankrupt our OWN country. Oh, yeah,they want that.

How can I callously say I’m not agonizing over the suffering of the Ukrainian people? And I was there, four years ago, I saw their beauty and vitality and fertility.

At that time I wrote in my travel journal Ukraine is young, it will survive, it’s like a soldier lurching home from the front, drunk, singing despite his wounds. I reckon I still believe that, or want very much to do so. I don’t know if they’ll “prevail” S we say now. But I do believe they’ll survive. I just hope my country will.Слава Укуаине,


There is a reasonable case the the foolish US/NATO involvement in the Ukraine and the Swamp’s loss of the Mandate of Heaven are different aspects of the same phenomenon.

A Congress which could not find $5 Billion to build a wall to protect the US border was able to find $50 Billion to encourage the Ukraine to fight for its former border. A Swamp which protects Democrat lawbreakers had no problem instigating an 8 year long civil war in the Ukraine – knowing that eventually Russia would have to intervene to stop the evil happening on its borders.

This will not end well. Sadly! If we are lucky and avoid nuclear annihilation, that would be good – but it would not solve the bigger problem of an out-of-control, incompetent, oppressive Swamp.


Is this the case? According to the Wikipedia “List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate” page, as of 2018 fertility was 1.22 children born per woman, ranking 195th out of the 200 states and territories listed and far below the replacement rate of 2.1. This forecasts a rapidly shrinking population, and the low fertility is not a recent phenomenon: in 2018 it was 1.3, which would have given it a rank of 190. The median age of the population in 2020 was 41.2 years, the 45th oldest out of 227 territories listed, compared to 38.5 years for the U.S., ranking 61. This means that the fraction of the population likely to have children is low. Here is the “bulge in the python” chart for Ukraine, showing how bad the situation is (click to enlarge).

Further, Ukraine has experienced strong emigration of young people seeking work elsewhere due to lack of job opportunities in their country. This further reduces the prospect of population replenishment.


Welp—can’t argue with that. All I van say is I saw a lot of baby carriages there, much more than I’ve seen in the US in the past decade.


This resonates with my observations of how the dissolution of former Yugoslavia resembles Ukraine from back in March.

For example, Croatia pursued (and succeeded) in complete victory over the Serbian rebels, but those areas have been destroyed and depopulated, with significant anger remaining among the Serbs who were not rebels and tried their best to de-escalate. Croatia paid a high price for that total victory: instead of a minority that would potentially assimilate within a generation, they simply lost those people to other countries.

Finally, it’s worth remembering that the rebellion of the Serbs was caused by the nationalists agitating both in Serbia and in Croatia. Unfortunately, neither of them was accommodating a small degree of religious and linguistic freedom.


It’s worse than that.

Ukraine has an unusually low nominal GDP per capita. $3727 from the World Bank in 2020.

If they just got up to Serbia levels, that would reduce it to about 30%.

There is no way for the US to double it’s GDP per capita. Particularly because any growth would increase interest rates. (whereas Shitholistan can turn itself around without tremendously affecting the dollar-denominated interest rates it pays on its debt).


Niall Ferguson: On China, Biden Should Dust Off the Word Detente - Bloomberg

The foundations are creaking. Witness this Bloomberg article by Niall Ferguson. Full disclosure – I do not have a high opinion of Mr. Ferguson … but will admit that he is a skillful insider, adept at listening to subterranean rumblings and getting just ahead of the crowd. Thus when he casts doubt on the feasibility of Ukrainian war aims, it can probably be taken as a good guide to what Our Betters are saying to each other when they are not appearing on CNN.

Ferguson tries backhandedly to put the onus for lack of enthusiasm about the Ukrainian cause on Europeans:
Three of Europe’s most important leaders — French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi — are distinctly uneasy about this. They would much prefer to see an imminent ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations. But to speak of compromise in the current febrile atmosphere of Ukrainophilia is to invite charges of appeasement.

Ferguson relays that Our Betters see the Ukraine, and indeed Russia, as mere sideshows:
"The most remarkable thing about the foreign policy of the Biden administration is that helping Ukraine defeat Russia is not even its top priority. “Even as President Putin’s war continues,” declared Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a speech at George Washington University on May 26, “we will remain focused on the most serious long-term challenge to the international order — and that’s posed by the People’s Republic of China.” "

What would the Biden Crew do if they were as smart as Ferguson?
… consider how detente might be helping Joe Biden today if, instead of talking tough on Taiwan in Tokyo, he had taken a trip to Beijing — fittingly, on the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s trip there in 1972. He could have:
1. Ended the trade war with China.
2. Begun the process of ending the war in Ukraine with a little Chinese pressure on Putin.
3. Applied joint US-China pressure on the Arab oil producers to step up production in a serious way (last week’s announcement was unserious), instead of letting them play Washington and Beijing off against one another.

Ordinary mortals may not be able to recognize the brilliance of Ferguson’s solution to an expensive losing US-NATO-EU proxy war in the Ukraine – Beg Enemy #1 China to tell Russia to stop! What would be in that for China? Surely China would rather see a divided weakened West saddled with the bleeding sore of a continuing conflict and the blowback from our own sanctions? However, the fact that Ferguson is writing this for public consumption in Bloomberg may be a rather telling straw in the wind.