Kazakhstan - Black Swan or Canary?

There was something strange about the confluence of street fighting and the burning of government buildings in Kazakhstan with the Usual Suspects in the US wringing their hands (again) about US people having entered the People’s House in a generally respectful (if excited) manner a year previously.

Of course, the West does not pay much attention to Kazakhstan – 20 Million people in an area about 4 times the size of Texas (or France) with rich mineral resources, and long borders with both Russia and China. Perhaps we should pay more attention?

Similar to many Western nations, Kazakhstan has a divided population – derived from ancient warring Turkic tribes with a large Russian minority. And China reportedly has substantial economic interests in its neighbor.

The trigger for the current unrest – we are told – was a jump in the price of LPG, widely used in place of gasoline. Inflation in energy prices, in other words. This may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back over existing frustrations with Lock Downs, etc. Or maybe not? There are the expected rumors that this is a repeat of the Western-inspired overthrow of Ukraine’s elected government, as part of NATO’s encirclement of Russia. As if Western politicians were that competent!

We could look at the events in Kazakhstan as a Black Swan – something that no-one had predicted, with consequences which could be hard to guess if Russia & China both get involved. Or we could look at it as the Canary in the Coal Mine – in a world in which European countries have already seen violent protests against Lock Downs and frustrated divided populations are facing major increases in fuel prices as the wages of their “Green” sin come due.

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