I ran some numbers using the US actuarial tables for men. Biden will turn 81 on November 20th. The second term would last until January 20, 2029.
| Biden Age | Risk of death | Year | Biden survives the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.065568 | 2023 | 93% |
| 81 | 0.072130 | 2024 | 87% |
| 82 | 0.079691 | 2025 | 80% |
| 83 | 0.088578 | 2026 | 73% |
| 84 | 0.098388 | 2027 | 66% |
| 85 | 0.109139 | 2028 | 58% |
| 86 | 0.120765 | 2029 | 51% |
I think candidacy at this age is irresponsible and selfish unless the other candidates are really so bad.
Here’s the one for Trump:
| Trump Age | Risk | Year | Trump survives the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.049152 | 2023 | 95% |
| 78 | 0.054265 | 2024 | 90% |
| 79 | 0.059658 | 2025 | 85% |
| 80 | 0.065568 | 2026 | 79% |
| 81 | 0.072130 | 2027 | 73% |
| 82 | 0.079691 | 2028 | 67% |
| 83 | 0.088578 | 2029 | 61% |