All day long the phrase from Tacitus has been running through my head:”They make a desert and call it peace”.
Thats what we were about to do to the people of Iran, it seemed to me. I mean, I’m totally on our side, as you know, but….we wanted to free them, and if we had taken out all the bridges and power plants, we’d pretty much have been imprisoning them in the dark.
So I was relieved when a few minutes ago I checked the news and found out the bombing wasn’t going to happen tonight.
Kinda relieved.
If Trump had done it, he’d be branded a war criminal; now that he’s postponed it, get ready for a liberal helping of TACO.
But thousands of people who woulda been dead as I write this, aren’t.
Did they really agree to open the Strait, and will they actually do so? What do you dear polymaths think?
A point the Usual Suspects may be missing about traffic through Hormuz – the key factor is how many ships go IN to the Gulf.
There are apparently about 800 ships currently trapped in the Gulf – lots of container ships and bulk cargo vessels as well as ships carrying oil destined for China/Japan and LNG destined for the benighted Euros. Shipowners clearly want to get those vessels out – and may even pay for the privilege – but will they be prepared to send ships back in?
Another factor to consider is that the Gulf Sunni Arab states have agency – and expensive militaries. Their willingness to live with Iran controlling the international waterway of Hormuz remains to be seen.
Related to that – Iran has breached “International Law” by blocking freedom of navigation in Hormuz. If Iran gets away with that, there are many other international waterways where countries desperate for cash may try to impose fees backed by the threat of military action. The Straits of Malacca come to mind. Maybe even the Denmark Strait and the English Channel.
After watching the news for an hour, I’m completely dispirited.
Iran IS in control of the Strait. It’s they who get to decide who can pass, and for what toll. If that ain’t control, idk what is.
As for the 10 points: wha’a’?!? Reparations, guarantee of US non-belligerence, agreed upon control,of Hormuz…..this is a “workable basis for negotiation”?
We are seeing the same thing we have seen in the Ukraine. The anti-US media breathlessly reports every press release from the Iranians as established fact. Of course the IRGC/theocracy is going to tell the Iranian people that they have defeated the Great Satan. It is just a bonus to them that the anti-US media reports that as fact.
We are at the beginning of a long process. Don’t get dispirited – wait and see.
China, Russia, and the US are all using this short break to check whether Iran’s missile & nuke programs have truly been disrupted – since that is what is most important to all three of them. If they have not, there will be more actions – some of them under the table.
And never forget other parties have agency. Oman may reject the idea of charging vessels for transit through Hormuz in clear violation of “International Law”. The UAE may take back the islands Iran invaded & stole from them. Saudi may say To Hell With It and nuke Iran. Mostly likely, Iran will do something stupid and void the cease-fire.
This is a feature, not a bug (Japan excepted). The US could help out Japan bros with this. The rest can buzz off (except I’d use a different word than buzz).
The remit of “international law “ extends only so far as use against the US and Israel. I mention this only in passing. As the outcome, I can’t imagine that the US and Israel will stop until they are certain Iran will never obtain nukes. It takes only a few ballistic missiles (near impossible to destroy ALL of them) to be an irresistible threat if they have nukes. Failure to accomplish this, I find unimaginable, given what has taken place (both causes and effects), an outcome which leaves Iran any way to ever produce nukes. I suppose this means eternal intrusive inspections or intrusion of forces into fortified tunnels, whose existence has been trumpeted as impregnable. Who knows the actual result of prior bunker busters? It seems all but certain that no future President will have the gonadal fortitude to do this again. It must end as “one and done “.
International law is a joke. Sovereign countries do what they like. That is inherent in the word sovereign. If it suits them to go along with “international law” then they do. If not, they don’t. Simple as.
No Iranian nukes is certainly the key requirement for Russia, China, the US – none of whom want to see Shia Iran trigger Armageddon to persuade the 12th Imam to pop out of the well.
But pause for a moment to consider the case of Dubai & Abu Dhabi, which were some of the nicest remaining places in the world to live – now living under the threat of Iranian drones, and with their commerce flattened by Iran’s illegal blockage of Hormuz. Add in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman all of whom have seen civilian infrastructure destroyed by Iranian non-nuclear missiles & drones – and who know that Iran could do it again at any time.
Further, all of those Sunni Arab states have historically relied on the Euros and the US for protection – now they know that the worthless Euros will pretend they are not involved, while the US does not have the technology to reliably stop Iranian drones.
What are those Sunni Arab states going to do? The casual Western assumption that they have no agency is probably wrong. They want a non-threatening Iran – and if China, Russia, the US can’t deliver that … well, Pakistan will gladly sell them the nukes to ensure that outcome. Saudi already has suitable Chinese missiles.
My guess is there is a lot happening between China, Russia, and the US which the NYT will never hear about.
So the negotiations which were supposed to end with President Trump on his knees kowtowing to the Iranians have instead ended with no deal. Only the NYT is surprised!
Good to see President Trump finally saying out loud the part which has been obvious since the Iranians started to breach “International Law” by playing games in the Straits of Hormuz – if Iran blocks ships from transiting Hormuz, the US will intercept Iranian shipping on the high seas, far from Iran. And what can the Iranians do about that?
Freedom of Navigation was very important to the Europeans, back when the Euros actually were Europeans. Russia can be expected to be wholeheartedly in support of re-establishing Freedom of Navigation, since Zelensky’s guys have been interfering with Russia’s shipping. China can also be expected to get behind the principle of Freedom of Navigation, at least rhetorically; China won’t interfere if the French decide to get in the act and join in an effort to blockade Iranian shipping.
Not a good time to be an IRGC theocrat – whatever the NYT says.
So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. … I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.