# Ukraine and Russia: War and Consequences **URL:** \ **Category:** The Happening World\ **Tags:** ukraine, russia, separatism, donetsk-lugansk, vladimir-putin\ **Created:** [21 February 2022 20:51 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919 "2022-02-21T20:51:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/439d5e/32.png) [@Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Gavin)\ **Post date:** [12 September 2024 19:52 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/682 "2024-09-12T19:52:55Z")
Brussels-based commentator Gilbert Doctorow is getting rather incensed about the “Joe Biden” Adminstration’s slide towards global war. He suspects that the push to give the Ukraine long-reach missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia is an effort to bait Russia into making a counter-attack. [Gilbert Doctorow – International relations, Russian affairs](https://gilbertdoctorow.com/) “_Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Putin have said that this is something that will trigger a response that is unequivocal, and that will be a counterattack. Now, a counterattack is probably what Washington wants right now, because then you would have a full-blown war, and that’s what they’re seeking. If there’s a full-blown war, then Kamala will be elected easily, because there’ll be a rally- around-the-flag upsurge of patriotism in the States, and the horror of Mr. Trump coming to power will have been avoided._” I find it hard to believe that a Russian attack on, say, military bases in Germany or on the City of London would trigger a rally-round-the-flag effect in the US – indeed, possibly the opposite. The technique of taunting the designated enemy into attacking first worked for FDR – but that was then, this is now, and Kamala Harris is no FDR. ---
**Author:** ![CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/ctlaw/32/42_2.png) [@CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/CTLaw)\ **Post date:** [17 September 2024 12:51 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/683 "2024-09-17T12:51:01Z")
More nonsense from Germany: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-moldova-could-be-next-line-if-ukraine-falls-2024-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-moldova-could-be-next-line-if-ukraine-falls-2024-09-17/) ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 11:31 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/684 "2024-09-18T11:31:13Z")
30k (two Hiroshima) [![Screenshot 2024-09-18 at 7.30.36 AM](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/3/b/3b3eee077ed74e0ef154f126bc8b548c4e6ff23a.jpeg)](https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1836262331522650442) > Epic detonations at a Russian munitions depot in the Tver region following yet another Ukrainian drone attack. > > Russian authorities have announced “partial evacuation” of the city of Toropets. Some analysis about what happened here [x.com](https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1836320996061573122) ---
**Author:** ![CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/ctlaw/32/42_2.png) [@CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/CTLaw)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 12:34 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/685 "2024-09-18T12:34:28Z")
Mostly unhardened warehouses in revetments but a good number of hardened storage areas reflecting lessons from the First Gulf War such as large berms in front of the entrances to block PGMs. 56.50644040644191, 31.703013979662206 https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=56.5064473,31.7004529&z=16&output=embed&dg=ntvb&q=56%C2%B030%2723.2%22N%2B31%C2%B042%2710.9%22E ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 13:23 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/686 "2024-09-18T13:23:43Z")
Hardened storage areas do help… if you use them: [![Screenshot 2024-09-18 at 9.23.14 AM](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/2/d/2d28aade155b865e5147b8d2346b4fbcc7347319.jpeg)](https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1836371959178838316) ![Screenshot 2024-09-18 at 9.24.50 AM](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/a/2/a2a2c275321be6b3c98467f79f540710aae969b3.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/439d5e/32.png) [@Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Gavin)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 13:41 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/687 "2024-09-18T13:41:49Z")
Toropets is 300 miles north of the Ukraine, and only 150 miles east of NATO chihuahua Lithuania. Hmmm! Seems like a strange place for Russia to have put an ammunition storage site, given NATO’s well-known aggressive tendencies. But corruption and incompetence are endemic to all bureaucracies. Presumably a rational response would be for Russia to stop stockpiling ammunition and instead drop it on the Ukraine as rapidly as they produce it? ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 14:32 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/688 "2024-09-18T14:32:18Z")
> [@Gavin](#): > > a rational response would be for Russia to stop stockpiling ammunition and instead drop it on the Ukraine as rapidly as they produce it Wouldn’t a more rational choice be Russia complying with this > **[Budapest Memorandum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum)** > > The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three substantially identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The three memoranda were originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. China and France gave so …or maybe, MAYBE, (I know it’s hard to believe) not invading other countries? ---
**Author:** ![Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/439d5e/32.png) [@Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Gavin)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 16:39 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/689 "2024-09-18T16:39:29Z")
> [@eggspurt](#): > > Wouldn’t a more rational choice be Russia complying with this Possibly. But that assumes the evil West would enforce the Minsk Agreements (both I and II) that they solemnly signed, committing them to stopping Zelensky’s civil war against then-Ukrainian citizens who were Russian speakers. Instead, the evil West armed up the Zelensky regime to continue its aggression against its own citizens. ---
**Author:** ![civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/civilwestman/32/25_2.png) [@civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/civilwestman)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 16:47 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/690 "2024-09-18T16:47:14Z")
> [@Gavin](#): > > Instead, the evil West armed up the Zelensky regime to continue its aggression against its own citizens. A truth which may neither be told nor heard… We are good and they are evil. We never invade anyone where our national security interest is negligible. ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 18:48 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/691 "2024-09-18T18:48:15Z")
And 15 European countries that have had Russian boot on their heads must be lost sheep? Why is everyone on the perimeter of Russia so adamantly against it? Maybe first-hand experience with a brutal lying psycho regime that Americans don’t really have? ---
**Author:** ![Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/439d5e/32.png) [@Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Gavin)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 20:44 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/692 "2024-09-18T20:44:33Z")
> [@eggspurt](#): > > a brutal lying psycho regime that Americans don’t really have? Ummm? Did you really say that? Have you paid any attention to the lying psycho regime that we (s)elected to occupy the Washington DC Swamp? No one can deny that our regime lies. As for brutal – look at the multi-year jail treatment of citizens who strolled peacefully through the People’s House. I am perfectly willing to believe that the Russian kettle is black. But the US pot is no longer the shiny bright color it once was. ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 23:13 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/693 "2024-09-18T23:13:32Z")
I think you took my quote totally out of context. What I wrote: > Maybe first-hand experience with a brutal lying psycho regime that Americans don’t really have? Here I meant that Americans don’t have enough experience with Russian regime, but adjacent nations do. ---
**Author:** ![civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/civilwestman/32/25_2.png) [@civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/civilwestman)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 23:20 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/694 "2024-09-18T23:20:06Z")
I think there is a difference between Soviet Russia and Russia today. For one thing, they have a coherent leader who can put a long string of sentences together. Say what you will about Putin; he knows his history, has a vision for his nation and he can coherently elaborate it. Who in the self-congratulating west can do likewise? As I see it, Russia is clearly ascendant with competent leadership. We are the exact opposite. Oh, so you say Russia today lacks a Bill of Rights. In case you haven’t noticed - neither do we have one any longer. ---
**Author:** ![Mettelus](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/a587f6/32.png) [@Mettelus](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Mettelus)\ **Post date:** [18 September 2024 23:43 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/695 "2024-09-18T23:43:54Z")
> [@eggspurt](#): > > Here I meant that Americans don’t have enough experience with Russian regime, but adjacent nations do. This is a decent point. The question is whether the feelings of Russia’s neighbors is based on reality or history. Most if not all of the countries next to Russia certainly have memories of Russian crimes. Whether it be the raping that Russian soldiers did in mass as they pushed back the Germans or the Russians that took land as they moved into these countries after the war or even the actions of Russia before world war 1. I grew up in a community of what were called Russian Germans. They immigrated to the US in the 1880s. They came from around Odessa. The Russian Czar had encouraged Germans to move there to farm and then took the farms. The point is that Russia, not just Soviet Russia, has a history of aggression just like you could say about the British, French, Italians, Spanish and the US so it isn’t surprising that the memories and distrust hasn’t faded. I certainly don’t know if it is legitimate or not. I would be more certain if the US and the West would have agreed that Ukraine would not become part of NATO. ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [19 September 2024 00:03 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/696 "2024-09-19T00:03:55Z")
> [@Mettelus](#): > > The question is whether the feelings of Russia’s neighbors is based on reality or history. And that’s a valid point from you. As much as I love the common Russian (farmer) culture, I have a serious problem with post-Putin psyops activities. Here’s some more recent evidence: ![vacc](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/2/0/205686d549665eea318f85d4586671e22df3fb96.jpeg) Notice how the proximity to Russian psychological operations affects the vaccination rates. Furthermore, notice how Serbia and Hungary, Russian allies, aren’t subject to the same psyops, and has higher vaccination rates (in part because they offered the Sputnik vaccine): ![E7Lj5vCWQAIFTbU](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/c/a/caf9e754d27eb5623e75a3e053d6b1eabd53a0d4.jpeg) And if you think vaccination hurts, take a look at a map of excess mortality and compare: ![Screenshot 2024-09-18 at 8.06.53 PM](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/uploads/default/original/3X/7/2/72310e1828fb0340bc53fb44552171dcb520d54e.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/civilwestman/32/25_2.png) [@civilwestman](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/civilwestman)\ **Post date:** [19 September 2024 00:06 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/697 "2024-09-19T00:06:55Z")
My conclusion from this is how stunningly effective are US psyops. We have no problem whatever keeping our satellites in orbit. They never even need course adjustments! ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [19 September 2024 00:09 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/698 "2024-09-19T00:09:43Z")
It sometimes seems like the US is more a Russian satellite than anything else 😉 > [@Crazy Years - Why?](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/crazy-years-why/1833): > > I’ve been wondering for years why everything is going haywire. There’s the effect of the internet (which I’ve elaborated on in [What has internet done to media?](https://medium.com/newco/what-has-internet-done-to-media-becbb610006b)) - but it doesn’t explain the frequency and intensity of propaganda we’re seeing. The key is to look for underlying causes, and Yuri Bezmenov seems to have done the best job at explaining it. Yuri Bezmenov was a journalist / propagandist who defected from KGB. He gave a few lectures and wrote a few books before he died of a “massive hear… ---
**Author:** ![Devereaux](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/devereaux/32/285_2.png) [@Devereaux](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Devereaux)\ **Post date:** [19 September 2024 03:35 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/699 "2024-09-19T03:35:40Z")
@eggspurt sometimes you throw statistics around like paper airplanes. ?WHAT _exactly_ does your "excess mortality chart _actually MEAN_. One can make a case that ALL excess mortality was caused by the vaccine. There would be a lot of truth in such a statement, albeit not necessarily the WHOLE truth. But “excess mortality” would seem mostly to reflect care of elderly. ?So what then is your conclusion about the charts you put up. ---
**Author:** ![Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/439d5e/32.png) [@Gavin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Gavin)\ **Post date:** [19 September 2024 17:57 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/700 "2024-09-19T17:57:30Z")
> [@eggspurt](#): > > Epic detonations at a Russian munitions depot in the Tver region following yet another Ukrainian drone attack. An interesting observation by Simplicius is that this particular Russian munitions depot had nothing to do with the proxy war in the Ukraine. This munitions depot – much closer to the NATO Baltic states than to the Ukraine – was apparently for the new army Russia is setting up in the north in response to the threat from Finland & Sweden joining NATO. [(58) Ukraine Strikes Russia’s 107th Arsenal: Crippling Blow or PR Nothingburger? (substack.com)](https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraine-strikes-russias-107th-arsenal) Add this to the earlier “Ukrainian” destruction of Russian long-distance radar warning stations in the south, built to give early warning of any NATO attack from that direction. It would be quite rational for Russia now to suspect that NATO is nibbling away at their defenses to set up the situation for a major attack on the Russian homeland. I wish I had confidence that NATO truly is a “defensive” alliance and that Our Betters honestly are seeking peace. ---
**Author:** ![eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/user_avatar/scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/eggspurt/32/3686_2.png) [@eggspurt](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/eggspurt)\ **Post date:** [20 September 2024 12:15 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919/701 "2024-09-20T12:15:46Z")
> [@Devereaux](#): > > WHAT _exactly_ does your "excess mortality chart _actually MEAN_. Excess mortality can be defined in several ways, some of them misleading. We have already dismissed the thesis that vaccines are a direct causes of excess mortality on Scanalyst on the case of excess mortality timing in New Zealand. For me, statistics are like birds. One of them might not mean much, but a whole flock of them migrating south might mean that the winter is coming. Thing is, if you dismiss each and every one of them individually, you won’t see the flock. [Previous page](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919.md?page=34) [Next page](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-consequences/919.md?page=36)