I understand the situation with respect to the Ukraine is very challenging to a generation that was brought up practicing getting under their school desks in the event that the evil USSR attacked. But the USSR broke up peacefully. And the Warsaw Pact died so long ago that most people under the age of 30 have never even heard of it.
Rationally, NATO would have dissolved itself when the Warsaw Pact died. But for some reason, it carried on. Bureaucracies live forever? NATO and various of its members did make commitments that NATO would remain a defensive alliance and would not expand eastwards towards the Russian border. That “defensive” alliance subsequently aggressively invaded multiple countries – Iraq, Libya, Serbia, Afghanistan. And NATO broke its promise about not expanding eastwards .
Given those realities, it is hardly surprising that Russia saw further expansion of NATO as an existential threat, and very vocally protested. What is surprising is that NATO and its members completely ignored Russia’s clearly-stated concerns. Germany’s Chancellor is now reported as saying that the Ukraine will never be permitted to join NATO. If he had said that loudly & publicly a month ago, a lot of needless deaths would have been avoided.
As for Taiwan, feel free to pick up your rifle and go to Taiwan to defend it. Even the USA will not commit to defend Taiwan from China, instead pursuing a deliberate policy of “strategic ambiguity”. This is the real world – not a hypothetical world where truth & justice reign supreme. It is inevitable that Taiwan will rejoin the mainland at some point – and not many people would be prepared to fight a nuclear war to prevent it. Life is not fair!
I do think you could have said this in a less demeaning way. I grasp I may be a bit of an outlier here, but this borders on fightin’ words.
I don’t have issues with how we are viewing Taiwan at the moment. But somewhere one has to draw a line in the sand. ?Is taking over by an openly hostile country of half the world’s chip production not a strategic problem. I am not necessarily FOR war, but not necessarily AGAINST it either in the case of Taiwan. Depends a lot on what happens. There are lots of ways to skin a cat, albeit this administration probably doesn’t know one.
I take your point that NATO could have simply dissolved itself. But with that logic, the UN should have dissolved a long time ago. It is clearly ineffective, giving rogue nations status when they should be pariahs. Putin is one of those; China may well be another. While Nixon ”opened” China to Western ways, all it seems. to have done is give them a new lease on life for a system that would have died otherwise some time ago.
I make no excuses for my generation. We may well have grown up with the Russian bear ever present, but we also lived through the destruction of the Berlin Wall, the dissolution of the vaunted USSR, the rise of the Russian mafia, and even today the open visibility of our own kleptocracy. Perhaps more than the follow on generations, we are aware of the loss of our liberty and sounding an alarm - which seems to be mostly dismissed by the follow-on generation. Perhaps some of that is we were taught better civics lessons. Some of it was simply growing lazy and fat. I live in an affluent neighborhood. When Dessert Storm came, my daughter told her 1st grade teacher her father had gone to war. The teacher called my wife to tell her Jo was telling fibs in school. Imagine her surprise when my wife informed her I had, indeed gone to war. The teacher had simply assumed no one from our area would be involved in such a “messy” affair.
So please don’t lecture me on the Ukraine being “very challenging to a generation that was brought up practicing getting under their school desks in the event that the evil USSR attacked.” I understand Ukraine, the geopolitical situation involved with it, and the risks of it for us, etc. I suspect that NATO should continue but without us. Europe is Europe; they ought finally to be able to solve some of their own problems. There is a serious question if the EU isn’t, in and of itself, a problem for us. A topic for another debate.
My big concern in all of this is that none of the Usual Suspects are factoring in the possibility (small, but greater than zero) that the conflict in the Ukraine (caused by NATO) will escalate. And if it escalates, it will end up with cities across the US, Europe, and Russia destroyed in nuclear fireballs. Your city, my city.
There is a clear, obvious potential for a negotiated settlement – a neutral Ukraine on good terms with the EU and Russia. Yet the official narrative is that we should be escalating the conflict. Don’t fall for it!
We are being played by the same foolish Political Class that exaggerated the challenge of Covid – and is now happy to see war in the Ukraine to push the recollections of that stupidity into the memory hole.
The US has entered so many conflicts and only the soldiers have had skin in the game. The general officers, not so much. The politicians and the rest of the country, none at all. The media being an extension of the politicians, played political games.
This was and is foolish.
When I visit cemeteries on Memorial day and see the flags that surround me, I think of those young people. I cannot support conflicts that I would not have skin in the game. I have a very high expectations for justification. I will not support the sacrifice of the young based on film flam and drum beating. It is just too easy for our supposed leaders to personally gain by sending others to sacrifice. Thus, I say something similar to Gavin. If you think it is worth it, grab a weapon and lead the way.
Now when I think or say that I am not referring to you or to anyone that has already proven they have sacrificed. I am referring to the people that beat the drum and then check their watch during a memorial service. They are POS. The leadership, media and other powers that be as well as those that can’t find the time to visit a cemetery on Memorial Day need to be put on the spot. They need to be willing to sacrifice. If they are too old to handle a weapon, we will take 30 percent of their wages and give it to the soldiers. Otherwise they need to stfu.
Part of the anger I feel toward the virtue signally culture is this ability to sound off to get social credit by having others sacrifice. I will take your money to help the poor. I will close your business to protect grandma. I will sacrifice your child to protect Ukraine. I will do all of this while never missing a manicure to help the cause.
When my unit was informed we were being mobilized for Dessert Storm, we held a unit meeting to discuss what this meant to us. Some of the troops expressed their willingness and even eagerness to participate in the coming fight. I told them they were asking the wrong question. It should have been “?Are you willing to send your son or daughter to this war****.
I think you and I will have to simply disagree on this. NATO is so FU’d that the concept they are a threat to anyone is laughable. If you look at NATO without us they are all FUBAR. Our “involvement” only allows them to spend their GDP on things other than their defense. There was a time that made some sense - not now. Trump at least tried to get them to contribute in some meaningful way.
OTOH, a negotiated settlement does NOT, to my mind, look even remotely possible. Putin has just announced that any country that aids and abets Ukraine will be considered an active combatant in the war. THAT does NOT seem compatible with his initial excuse of ”peace keeping of the Eastern provinces”. It now seems for him it’s all or nothing. Plus one has to factor in the obvious, legitimate fear those Eastern block nations have of Russia, especially since it appears to be led by a madman.
Perhaps some of this is bullying but if so, it is dangerous bullying. He is challenging Europe to possibly a full-fledged war. Other than some nukes, he really doesn’t have much to stand on. We’ve already seen his ”army” in the field - in Ukraine, and it isn’t impressive.
As for Putin “warning” NATO, one should take Self-Defense as the standard. You are allowed to say you feared for your life but it still has to pass the “common man” test - ?would it have felt like a life threatening event to the common man. In Putin’s case, I think it fails miserably.
Earlier today, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. would give a “green light” for Poland to transfer fighter jets to Ukraine. (I don’t know the positions of Defense Secretary Winken or Treasury Secretary Nod on the issue.) Blinken further said the U.S would “back-fill” equipment Poland sent to Ukraine.
Well, if Putin means what he is reported to have said, that puts Poland if it does this, a NATO member, as a direct combatant against against Russia. This is getting to be a situation from which it is difficult to back down.
There are reports that Polish authorities have subsequently said they have no plans to transfer warplanes to the Ukraine.
There have also been reports that the US is considering sanctions on Russian oil – but Germany has said they won’t support such a move.
The difficulty is that this is an existential situation for Russia. There is no way for them to back down gracefully. And the West is doing nothing to try to broker peace. That is why we all need to be aware of the potential for nukes to start flying if “Our Guys” don’t start to get smart.
Being an optimist, I pin my hopes on China stepping forward to broker a peace that will incidentally install a permanent Chinese military force in the Ukraine as a safeguard. The EU might not like it, but this is the bed they are making.
Bless the souls in Ukraine , let’s hope this conflict ends sooner than later. The world is full is tragedy, but by spreading support we can try to make this situation better!
This is a great metaphor that I will steal - thank you @Gavin
The last two years have consistently shown that today’s conspiracy theory becomes the generally accepted consensus in just a little under six months. So, Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine ? It sounds wild, but there is little doubt China has been the tertius gaudens so far.
, let’s hope this conflict ends sooner than later. The world is full is tragedy, but by spreading support we can try to make this situation better!