Un-memory: nine years on

One of the things the U.S. federal government did right (hey, it was in 2008—before) was the preparation and publication of the “Critical National Infrastructures” [PDF] report by the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. They not only read “studies” and listened to “experts”, but set up and ran their own experiments where automobiles, aircraft, and electrical and electronic equipment were subjected to high-energy pulses that simulated the effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events in a variety of scenarios.

They found that while the consequences of such an event would not be as dire as some of the hyperventilating reports in popular media (for example, most cars would, if they stalled, simply restart, and airliners raining out of the sky was pure fantasy), the reality would still be severe. They also evaluated means of mitigating the severity of damage and found that a relatively small investment in hardening systems and planning for bringing them back up after an EMP disruption would have a large payoff in lives saved and economic losses averted should such an event happen.

Of course, essentially none of these steps have been taken because, as Glenn Reynolds (the Instapundit) puts it, they provide “insufficient opportunities for graft”.

Hardening of power grid and communication infrastructure is wise regardless of your view of the geopolitical situation because every now and then the Sun vomits out a solar flare that sends an electromagnetic bullet into space which, if it hits the Earth, will have effects comparable to an EMP caused by Norks with nukes. (Probably not as acute, but still able to turn the lights off on a hemispheric scale.) The last big one to hit the Earth was the Carrington event in 1859, but there have been many since which, by pure luck, missed the Earth. I wrote about one earlier this year on 2023-03-18 in “Large Coronal Mass Ejection on Far Side of the Sun”. Luck is not a strategy.

Still, we know how to avoid most of the consequences of either a deliberate EMP attack or a solar flare. Whether we have the foresight to make the modest investment required to do so is less certain.

You can’t be too careful. We may be overdue for the next Miyake event.

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