What happened in Syria?

General Discussion
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Here’s a fascinating thread

Cleaned-up text, but see the thread on X for photos and links:

Thread: The Fall of Assad

October 7, 2023: The countdown began with the Nova Music Festival massacre in Israel, initiated by Hamas. At the time, few thought this event would be tied to Assad’s downfall.

However, Hezbollah’s decision to open a front against Israel from Lebanon proved a decisive mistake for the resistance axis.

September 27, 2024: Israel assassinated Nasrallah, a critical ally of Assad, marking a turning point. Losing Hezbollah’s leader weakened Assad’s support, both financially and militarily. Assad now had less than three months.

The Alawi Connection:
While Syria was ostensibly ruled by Alawis, it was the Assad family who truly held power. Alawis benefited from this rule but were also used by the regime. When the end came, Alawis offered little resistance.

Assad relied on fearmongering, convincing minorities and secular citizens that without him, they were doomed. This narrative tied the Alawis to him, despite growing dissatisfaction with Iran and Shia militias expanding influence in Syria.

As resources dwindled, Assad leaned on ideological and sectarian militias, further alienating Sunnis and regional powers.

Assad’s Balancing Act:
Assad hated reliance on a single patron. He improved ties with the UAE as a hedge against Iran and Russia, believing Abu Dhabi might support him in a crisis.

Turkey’s Role:
Turkey, led by Erdogan and Hakan Fidan, emerged as a key player in reshaping the region as Iran retreated. Ankara’s first strategic move was feigning reconciliation with Assad to lower his guard.

December 2, 2024:
While Assad was in Moscow attending his son’s graduation, Syrian opposition forces launched a surprise attack on Aleppo, capturing the city with minimal resistance.

The hollowed-out Syrian Army, plagued by low morale and dire financial conditions, offered little defense. Hezbollah fighters were distracted by Israel, and Iranian militias had largely withdrawn.

As the opposition advanced toward Damascus, Assad fled to the Russian airbase in Latakia, awaiting Putin’s approval to leave Syria. His final flight included only his closest financial advisors, signaling his focus on survival and wealth preservation.

Post-Assad Syria:
The country now pivots to a more religious and pious leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa, handpicked by Turkey. Whether he can balance his Islamist ideology with governance remains to be seen.

Turkey, as the new power broker, has a vested interest in stabilizing Syria to encourage refugee returns and assert its regional dominance.

A New Experiment:
With Iran’s retreat and Turkey’s rise, Syrians face an uncertain future. Will the new leadership bring stability or deepen divisions? Only time will tell.

The Horrors of Assad’s Regime:
The fall of Assad has revealed the industrial-scale atrocities committed in Syria’s prisons. The sickening images and stories have shocked even those familiar with the regime’s brutality. Accountability for these crimes is essential to ensure they are never repeated.

Putin, are you watching?

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tl;dr
Assad bad; replacement good

Those hoping for a flourishing of freedom and democracy in Syria following the takeover by Islamist kooks is likely to be sorely disappointed. The GAE cheered this on but it will soon be sorry what it wished for. Let’s just say the new regime will not be flying the rainbow flag in Damascus anytime soon.

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Someone elsewhere pointed out that this “conventional wisdom” may not make much sense.

After all, it is also conventional wisdom (backed by observations) that the Ukraine is highly corrupt, the military leadership leaves a lot to be desired, the front-line troops are mainly conscripts who know they are at the front only because they did not have enough money or contacts to get a cushy bunk far in the rear. In summary, the Ukrainian army is also plagued by low morale and dire financial conditions – and yet, the Ukrainian army keeps on fighting, and fighting tenaciously, in what they know is a losing battle.

This raises the obvious question – Why the great difference between the resistance put up by rather similar militaries in Syria and in the Ukraine?

We don’t know the reason. Maybe part of the answer lies in a bought-off officer corps in Syria which was paid to order their troops to abandon their positions? There may be lessons here for other countries and other conflicts.

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"

Gavin

1h

Someone elsewhere pointed out that this “conventional wisdom” may not make much sense.

After all, it is also conventional wisdom (backed by observations) that the Ukraine is highly corrupt, the military leadership leaves a lot to be desired, the front-line troops are mainly conscripts who know they are at the front only because they did not have enough money or contacts to get a cushy bunk far in the rear. In summary, the Ukrainian army is also plagued by low morale and dire financial conditions – and yet, the Ukrainian army keeps on fighting, and fighting tenaciously, in what they know is a losing battle.

This raises the obvious question – Why the great difference between the resistance put up by rather similar militaries in Syria and in the Ukraine?

We don’t know the reason. Maybe part of the answer lies in a bought-off officer corps in Syria which was paid to order their troops to abandon their positions? There may be lessons here for other countries and other conflicts."

Well, maybe. Worth a look - by someone with the intel resources to analyse this correctly - and come to some rational conclusions (?are you listening Col Gabbert).

Meanwhile, while you point out the obvious commonalities, the discommonalities are also notable.

First of all, Ukraine is essentially an European :“nation”. That means if brings a Judeo-Christian worldview to the fight. So while those on the front line may view themselves as you observe, they also may have a similar viewpoint WE have had throughout “our wars” - beginning with WWI, the first (?maybe - Spanish-American War may actually be the first of our “unnecessary wars”). of our adventuring by the government in chasing some illusiosy goal as yet never well established or documented. Look no further than some of the comments here by @jabowery et al on our behavior over the last 1+ century. I believe European whites are kind of “spring loaded” into defense of the homeland whenever such is evoked, and it in only lately that there is questioning of such. But note - Eastern Europe is not the same as Western Europe. More primitive, more primal responses, less tolerance for a lot of the shenanigans we have seen from the Far Left over here and Western Europe.

Second, I truly believe the islamists have worn out their welcome. MOST people are tired of the same old :“They’re poor! All they want is JOBS!” Yes, but they want your head too, and I think that simple fact has finally percolated to the surface - certainly in Europe, and arguably here with the landslide election of DJT.

While I don’t dispute some of your logic, I think it is wise at this point to await further developments. History has a fine sense of irony.

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We are in total agreement. Some of the more informed commentary suggests that the Western media line of the Syrian people rejecting Assad is a giant simplification of a situation in which many groups are mutually antagonistic – different flavors of Islam, Kurds versus Arabs, urban versus rural, historic grudges, etc.

Fortunately, President-Elect Trump is calling for US forces to exit Syria. Let’s hope that this time he is successful in getting his antagonistic Pentagon officers to follow orders. The whole of Syria is not worth the bones of a single Southern US male – or the expenditure of a single US taxpayer Dollar.

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here you have the former British diplomat Alastair Crooke…

https://www.youtube.com/live/iSrzdVdG-Pg?si=r9Ygvw608x29IqaC

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