What to do with the LCS?

[Gavin]

“The report will also include a recommendation from SOUTHCOM’s leader, Army Gen. Laura Richardson …”

No disrespect to Ms. Richardson – but the guys who run China’s navy must be thanking their lucky stars! It would have been beyond their wildest hopes for the US Navy to shrink into a smaller force than the Chinese Navy, with ships that are over-priced & under-performing, with female officers who run their warships into cargo vessels, and with female pilots who flunk carrier landings. If the Navy’s officers & men fight as hard against the Chinese as they have done against insidious DIE (Diversity, Inclusion, Equity), the only question is which Chinese admiral will get the honor of accepting their surrender.

[Theo]

I asked chatGPT about the future of the US Navy. She said:

In the future, the U.S. Navy is likely to continue to modernize and upgrade its existing fleet, as well as develop and field new ships and systems to meet the changing security environment and the evolving needs of the service. This may include the development of new types of ships, such as unmanned and autonomous vessels, as well as the integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare capabilities, and directed energy weapons. However, the specifics of these developments will depend on a variety of factors and are difficult to predict with certainty.

I asked: “tell me more about unmanned and autonomous vessels”. She replied:

Unmanned and autonomous vessels are ships that are either partially or fully operated without the need for human crew onboard. These types of vessels have the potential to revolutionize the way that navies and other maritime organizations operate, as they can perform a variety of tasks more efficiently, cost-effectively, and safely than traditional manned ships.

There are several different types of unmanned and autonomous vessels that are being developed and tested, including:

Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs): These are ships that are designed to operate on the surface of the water without a human crew. USVs can be used for a variety of missions, including surveillance, mine countermeasures, and environmental monitoring.

Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs): These are underwater vehicles that are designed to operate without a human crew. UUVs can be used for a variety of missions, including intelligence gathering, mine countermeasures, and oceanographic research.

Autonomous Surface Vessels (ASVs): These are ships that are equipped with autonomous navigation and decision-making capabilities, allowing them to operate without the need for a human crew. ASVs can be used for a variety of missions, including surveillance, cargo transportation, and environmental monitoring.

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs): These are underwater vehicles that are equipped with autonomous navigation and decision-making capabilities, allowing them to operate without the need for a human crew. AUVs can be used for a variety of missions, including intelligence gathering, mine countermeasures, and oceanographic research.

Unmanned and autonomous vessels have the potential to significantly enhance the capabilities of navies and other maritime organizations. They can operate in hazardous or challenging environments, such as shallow waters, minefields, or areas with high levels of traffic, without putting human lives at risk. They can also be deployed for long periods of time without the need for rest or rotation of crew, allowing them to perform tasks more efficiently and cost-effectively.

However, there are also challenges associated with the development and use of unmanned and autonomous vessels, including the need to ensure their reliability, safety, and security, as well as the ethical and legal implications of using these types of technologies. These issues will need to be carefully considered as these technologies continue to evolve and become more widely used in the future.

My feeling: Let us not look at naval warfare via a rearview mirror.

For example, the next “war” might more easily be won by sinking a hundred 18K TEU container ships. So the US Navy ensures that they have a container of a debilitating nature aboard all vessels of interest.

For example, the next “war” might be disrupted by exquisitely equipped gangs of Somali pirates.

For example, forget the Navy. Place your bets on the Space Force ~ https://www.spaceforce.mil/

For example, (my fav) B52s launching kamikaze drones (a reference to the good doctor here)

[Gavin]

@Theo

For example, the next “war” might more easily be won by sinking a hundred 18K TEU container ships.

That sounds as sensible as supposedly Russia blowing up the NordStream pipelines – instead of simply shutting the valves, putting a lock on them, and walking away. Those container ships will be heading to the US carrying imported goods the US can no longer manufacture. It is much more likely that in a conflict China would simply stop shipping goods to the US, resulting in panic buying and urban riots within a couple of weeks. It is tough to see how any US naval action could force China to keep sending goods to the US.

One interpretation of World War II is that the side which has greater resources and manufacturing capacity wins. That would be the way to bet on future large-scale conflict. It would also be a good reason for the West to stop provoking conflicts around the globe.