# \#prediction-markets

**URL:** https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/tag/prediction-markets/152.md

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## [Prediction Markets Open Thread](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/prediction-markets-open-thread/6123)

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**Author:** [@CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/CTLaw)\
**Replies:** 19\
**Last updated:** [30 October 2026 00:05 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/prediction-markets-open-thread/6123 "2026-10-30T00:05:59Z")

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The Nobel Peace Prize organisers are investigating a potential leak after online betting surged in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado just hours before she was announced as this year’s winner. h…

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## [Election Betting Odds 2024](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/election-betting-odds-2024/4819)

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**Author:** [@Citizen\_bitcoin](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/Citizen_bitcoin)\
**Replies:** 16\
**Last updated:** [8 November 2024 23:35 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/election-betting-odds-2024/4819 "2024-11-08T23:35:56Z")

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## [Prediction Markets on US Elections](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/prediction-markets-on-us-elections/160)

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**Author:** [@johnwalker](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/johnwalker)\
**Replies:** 28\
**Last updated:** [6 November 2024 22:19 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/prediction-markets-on-us-elections/160 "2024-11-06T22:19:37Z")

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The PredictIt prediction market has opened markets on the nominees of the Democrat and Republican parties for U.S. president in 2024 as well as the eventual winner of the general election. Current standings (2021-10-20 …

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## [June 27, 2024 US Presidential Debate Live Blog](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/june-27-2024-us-presidential-debate-live-blog/4721)

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**Author:** [@CTLaw](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/CTLaw)\
**Replies:** 98\
**Last updated:** [2 August 2024 14:09 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/june-27-2024-us-presidential-debate-live-blog/4721 "2024-08-02T14:09:36Z")

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Join us here tomorrow at 9pm EDT. As a teaser, keep checking the prediction markets on Trump’s running mate: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8069/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-vice-presidential-nomination …

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## [Existential Hope with Robin Hanson](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/existential-hope-with-robin-hanson/2420)

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**Author:** [@johnwalker](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/u/johnwalker)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [9 December 2022 14:21 UTC](https://scanalyst.fourmilab.ch/t/existential-hope-with-robin-hanson/2420 "2022-12-09T14:21:09Z")

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Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He has a doctorate in social science from Caltech…