An Election Prognostication

General Discussion
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Let’s face it – this Presidential election is fairly irrelevant because none of the real issues are being seriously addressed – like cutting FedGov spending, rolling back regulation, promoting re-industrialization, reducing the unsustainable trade deficit. Whoever is elected won’t really have a mandate for the needed tough actions – not that that matters in a “democracy”.

To make it interesting, how about trying to guess how many votes each candidate will get? This is complicated by two factors – (1) the growing population of the US, and (2) the uncertain amount of fraud.

First, an analysis of past elections:

Making the dubious assumption that historic actual votes can be scaled up by population and normalizing to the 2020 US population of 336 Million, we get the following estimates –

Pre-Biden, the largest number of votes obtained by any candidate was Ronald Reagan in his second election in 1984 in which he got 78.6 Million votes scaled (54.5 Million actual).

Obama came close to that in his first election in 2008, when he got 76.4 Million votes scaled (69.5 Million actual). The thrill of voting for a “Black” man had apparently declined by 2012, when he dropped to 69.9 Million votes scaled (65.9 Million actual).

Then came the overwhelming wave of enthusiasm for that charismatic orator Biden in 2020, who swept the board with 81.3 Million votes (actual & scaled). Take that, Obama and Reagan!

Now to prognostication:

Trump received 74.2 Million votes (actual) in 2020, which was about 11 Million more votes than he got in 2016. If we assume that all those voters turn out again for him this year, and scale up the 2020 votes to the 2024 estimated population of 342 Million, Trump may receive 75.5 Million votes this time.

Harris lacks Biden’s glowing charisma, dynamic capabilities, and enormous popularity. Consequently, it is likely she will receive votes in line with the previous female candidate Hillary! Clinton, who got 65.9 Million actual votes in 2016. Scaling that up to the 2024 US population, Harris is likely to get around 68.8 Million votes. Of course, this assumes that the level of fraud declines from its 2020 peak.

Alternative bets are welcome!

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75 million to 68.8 million is plausible, good prediction!

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There is a strong Howard Dean vibe to the Harris campaign. She has never won a competitive race. She was handed the senate seat by the Democratic Party machine in California because she was highly controllable. Of course, she famously flamed out in the 2020 presidential primary. She was handed the nomination this time when they pushed Biden over the edge. Her entire existence as a political figure rests on a mass media operation to conceal the reality of her support.

Of course, there is the other shenanigans. States like Michigan and Pennsylvania rely on the party machine to “get out the vote” for the Democrat. Both states have Democrat governors with eyes on the 2028 nomination. If Harris wins the election, then the political career of Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro come to an end. They will be too old and too forgotten in 2032. There are also forces in Washington who would like to be rid of Harris and her people too.

https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=32939

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