This short film was produced by the Future of Life Institute. More information and resources upon which the scenario is based are available at the Artificial Escalation Project Web site. Further background is provided by the 2020 publication, “Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk” (full text [PDF, 158 pages] available at the link), by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Something like this seems entirely plausible, especially given the present inability to ascertain real from fake data, information, analysis, or even national interests. Hell, we no longer agree that there exists an objective reality (I’m not getting into the epistemology woods here, just sufficient understanding of everyday reality to the extent one knows not to walk into highway traffic or jump out of airplanes sans parachute, for example).