Over three centuries ago, in 1688, Catholic King James II & VII sat uneasily on the thrones of England, Scotland, and Ireland. His forceful Catholicism was increasingly at odds with the Protestantism of most of his subjects – in a benighted time when people worried about their immortal souls instead of Global Warming. Even James’ own daughter Mary had become a Protestant; she had gone to Holland and married the Protestant ruler William III (in one of the typical inter-marriages between royal families which gave Europeans so many excuses for conflict).
William saw an opportunity to enlarge his domains. Claiming that his Protestant wife Mary was the rightful ruler of England, Scotland, and Ireland, he organized an invasion.
William’s invasion was marked by massive incompetence, conveniently blamed on bad weather. His troops ended up landing in remote south-west England – but to everyone’s surprise, there was no effective resistance as they marched towards London. The English no longer cared enough about their independence to fight against the invading Dutch. Thus James was given the bum’s rush and William & Mary took the throne.
In a brilliant piece of public relations, authorities gave this successful Dutch invasion of England the name of the “Glorious Revolution” – even though the English themselves had not revolted, merely standing around with their hands in their pockets.
A Chinese historian would undoubtedly say that James had lost the Mandate of Heaven, leaving his regime subject to being replaced. The event definitely showed how tenuous a regime’s grasp of power can be once it has sacrificed the loyalty of its population.
That brings us to the issue of Past as Prologue, the great geological Principle of Uniformitarianism – anything that has happened can happen again. It is unlikely that the sadly diminished Dutch would today invade the New World to reclaim New Amsterdam. But the southern border of the former US is wide open to an invasion by persons unknown, and US citizens are mostly standing around with their hands in their pockets. If China decided this was the moment to land forces on the coast of California, would they be greeted by anything more than token resistance from a population that has justifiably lost confidence in its Political Class?