Forecasting earthquakes with astronomy

Turns out that one can predict earthquakes by analyzing the location of Uranus:

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Totally not going there….


To see if there’s anything to this theory, I went to examine one of the earlier predictions by the same fellow:

Due to critical planetary geometry on 20-21 August there is a higher probability of strong to major seismic activity, most likely 22-24 August. A convergence of critical planetary geometry from 26 to 28 August may cause major seismic activity, especially from 29 to 31 August.

Let’s see what happened:

He was right.

Then let’s look at January:

There’s a biggie on January 9. Did he predict it? Here’s a video timestamped on Jan 8, making a prediction for Jan 9:

A convergence of planetary geometry on 7 January may trigger larger seismic activity around 9 January. Planetary and lunar geometry with Saturn on 10 January may cause larger seismic activity around 13 January.

There wasn’t much around Jan 13th. Nonetheless, I’ll say there are definitely very important sources of signal here that need more attention.

It is plausible that tides caused by the Moon and Sun could trigger earthquakes when alignments cause high Earth tides. Tidal forces deform the Earth’s crust by several centimetres, and this may unload a sticking fault and release stored stress energy. Evidence of increased seismic activity aligned with high tides exists but is weak and disputed.

Claims that solar activity (sunspots, solar flares, etc.) Is correlated with earthquakes are also plausible, since solar activity changes Earth’s rotation rate by expanding the atmosphere, and this could trigger a fault.

Influence from other planets is difficult to imagine. Tidal forces are proportional to the mass of the body and fall as the third power of distance, so the tides created by planets are negligible compared to the Moon (very close) and Sun (very massive).

Since it is easy to accurately compute the positions of planets back to the start of recorded history and we have historical records of many earthquakes, if a correlation existed it could be found in these data.


Contemplating the location of Urumbilicus would be more relevant, no?