PA was a toss-up now leans Trump in Polymarket.
PA will decide the election.
Fracking is big in PA: 600k employed in the state according to Selina Zito, a reporter and pundit who is a Steelers fan.
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56/44 odds ratio is still a toss-up.
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I can’t believe this! I’d love to, though.
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Statistically or due to cheating?
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Imagine your doctor tells you that you only have a 56% chance of surviving past 3 months from the cancer that has metastasized. That’s not very good news.
It is quite different from the news that 56% of voters support your favored candidate in a poll with a (typical) margin of error of 3%. If the margin of error estimate is accurate, the probability that your candidate will lose is very low since 50% is about three standard deviations away from 56%. In short, the chance of losing is negligible.
Another problem with betting markets is they are subject to manipulation, as by a large bet; see Citizen_bitcoin’s comment, above. That is why betting markets have a poor track record for high-stakes contests such as Brexit and Trump/Clinton 2016, in which they both failed miserably.
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Moreno has the lead in Ohio over Brown
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Epilogue:
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They are both right: trust neither.
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Meanwhile, the NPCs at Metaculus (not real money “prediction market”) sit around congratulating each other on being part of the managerial class Realists.
In my experience, the prediction markets that don’t use real money always fail at the most critical moment whereas the real money prediction markets sometimes don’t fail at the most critical moments.
I find the FBI’s move against the CEO of Polymarket to be of a piece with the death of John Delaney.
Intelligence agencies really don’t like competition from the private sector not just because it makes them appear stupid but because anyone with half a brain would realize the old saw “Never attribute to malice…” is a psychological weapon deployed by enemy intelligence moles.
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