Prediction Markets on US Elections

I’d say we have already had scorched earth. As well - in a kind of fruition - the FBI is currently ignoring a congressional subpoena regarding biden/son corrpuption! As you, a lawyer, know, that is a major no-no for the rest of us who walk upon the ground. Go directly to jail! It announces what we all know: they are out of control and must be “defunded” or disbanded.

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Looks like he filed with the FEC but the filing is not posted:
https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/P40011991/

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Now more like 1hour 10 minutes.

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Here the link for the Twitter Spaces Ron DeSantis announcement, which is scheduled to start at 00:00 UTC on 2023-05-25. This is under Elon Musk’s account—I don’t know if you have to be one of his subscribers to listen.

The following YouTube Webcast claims it will broadcast the announcement. We’ll see in a few minutes.

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The timing of the audio failure during introduction by David Sacks was interesting. He was plunging head-first into not only the exposure of government corrupt handling of the pandemic but into an attack on the California government’s handling of the pandemic in contrast with Florida.

Twitter has to treat its software as mil-grade hardened against attack by the US Federal government’s array of intelligence and military cyberwarriors as well as foreign agents. Can you imagine the kinds of measures, such as tales that must be spun by the US IC to tell their own cyberwarriors, to keep the lid on this?

Musk’s experience with PayPal certainly exposed him to the need for hardening all aspects of that business but I don’t think he really gets just how compromised the entirety of Western Civilization has been by H-1b.

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The Twitter Spaces announcement by Ron DeSantis was extremely bumpy. I wasn’t able to hear anything at all of the actual event, while others report it came through just fine. Elon Musk has posted an hour long recording which plays just fine for me. Twitter Spaces recordings cannot be embedded here, but you can play it on Twitter with the following link:

Live with Ron DeSantis

You do not need to have a Twitter account to view or play this recording.

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RFK Jr. just added on Dem. side:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

But not in general:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Sound’s like money to be made. If his Dem. nomination chance is 12%, I’d rate his overall chances at at least 7%

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Since all the real money prediction markets beat Metaculus this time around, bias is a topic at Metaculus, with some claiming that because Metaculus (purportedly) beat the real money markets in 2022, it is not all that biased.

I beg to differ on the grounds that Metaculus is a real money market in the sense that the managerial class depends on endless palavering and posturing and politicking about who has the highest status in the World Reserve Currency foodchain – and Metaculus is essentially a managerial class sect.