The PredictIt prediction market has opened markets on the nominees of the Democrat and Republican parties for U.S. president in 2024 as well as the eventual winner of the general election. Current standings (2021-10-20 at 19:47 UTC) are:
The way prediction markets work is that you buy shares in Yes or No for your choice at a price of US$1 times the percentage offered in the market. When the event happens and the outcome is known, shares in the correct prediction pay off at par while all others are worthless. So, for example, you could buy 100 shares of Trump president in 2024 for US$ 29 and if he wins the election, you collect US$ 100.
I found the prediction of Biden as the Democrat nominee surprisingly low.
I have a somewhat practiced physicianâs eye, imperfect as it may be. In my experience, Bidenâs mien definitely does not comport with a life expectancy sufficient for another term. When he has been less carefully resurrected - sorry, made up, he doesnât look very likely to live out this term.
Right now Ron DeSantis is listed as having a greater probability of being the nominee than Trump. However Trump is listed as having a greater probability of winning the presidency. Thus, despite what our betters tell us, Trump is the better candidate.
I get all these emails:âWe want DonRon!â
Now, wouldnt tht be too effing perfect, If DeSantis would run as VP?
Everybody would know trump canât run in 2028 but, If Trump does even half as good a job as he did last time, his VP should be a shoo-in. It really is the GOP dream-team.
Of course there re reasons why neither of them might want that. And maybe if Trump gets the nomination he should pick Kristi Noem or Mayra Flores. And maybe DeSantis would feel itâs too big. Risk, running with Trump might scuttle the rest of his promising career. (personally I vacillate between thinking Trump is the ONLY one who can do what needs to be done, and worrying that he may be the ONLY Republican who, could, possibly, lose in 2024.)
But let me take this opportunity to say that, if Trump runs again, he is the bravest man we have ever had in American politics. My god, they didnât subject even NIXON to the kind of slanderous obloquy Trump has had to endure. How CAN he be willing to take more? Abject adoration is, in my view, the only correct response to such a warrior.
Also, âShow me the man and Iâll find you the crime.â? Beria made it sound so EASY!
Oh, over 7 years now theyâve been yellinâ the ecce homo, But, umâthe crime? None so far despite millions of dollars paid to partisan âinvestigators.â The rabid, Trump- hating AG of NY finally reduced in desperation to bringing a CIVIL fraud suitâwhen everybody knows it is the responsibility of the lender, not the borrower, to establish the value of loan collateral.
In spite of that, I predict we will see Trump in manacles before the midterms. Which does NOT mean he wonât still run again. He has but one life to give for his countryâand heâs givinâ it!
The ânew citiesâ on ânew landâ is supposed to appeal to The Nation of Settlers and the instinct toward The Laboratory of the States (aka Cuius regio, eius religio) but Trump canât deliver and more importantly for the election outcome, Trumpâs failure to deploy the military to secure the border, like the Apollo program, has returned cynicism to the Nation of Settlers in a way that cannot be so easily overcome â not even with the nightmare of the Biden years as a stick to the Trump carrot. The reduction of the working white class heterosexual male turnout is going to persist at the same time that âthe demographic transitionâ (we donât call it ârace replacementâ do we?) has further shifted the electoral base.
OK, Theil.
Rural areas have been depopulated and what population is left has been denuded of human capital at a genetic level by the economy outbidding young rural men for the fertile years of young women â particularly in those areas. Strong head-wind there.
What? Is he going to have some way of allowing the young men to outbid the economy for the fertile years of the young women with the most economically valuable characteristics to reverse the aforementioned dysgenics inherent in all current technological societies, with the possible exception of Israel? How is he going to repeat, for The Nation of Settlers, the Jewish propaganda campaign portraying Jews as the replacement of Christ in Holocaustianity so women want to have Jewish men sire their children? I get it that heâs The Likud Candidate (and have said so ever since his Mexican Rapist Speech) and I get it that the Likudâs want to preserve USrael, but I see insufficient evidence they have what it takes to do it. They have to have their âCome To Jesusâ moment and admit that they have some serious House Cleaning to do. If they do I believe theyâll be forgiven. That, IMHO, is the only way forward to another baby boom. Women have to believe in the men and Hollywood blew all its social capital.
To be more serious, what can President Trump say?
He canât say âBuild the Wallâ, because everyone knows now that the Institutional Republicrats would stymie him, just like they did before when they held House & Senate.
He canât say âLock Her Upâ, because everyone knows now that the unelected DC Swamp Deep State outranks the mere President and looks after its own, especially when the Institutional Republicrats are a mere front for the Deep State.
It is too late, anyway. Either Biden* bumbles his way into a global thermonuclear war (which at least would end the Swamp â ill wind, etc), or we get societal collapse as the US and the rest of the West go bankrupt when the willingness of foreigners to accept our worthless IOUs dissipates. (Good news! That would end the Swamp too).
A. I would add that there are currently plenty of economic opportunities in rural areas and they cannot draw people from the mega cities.
B. Outbidding young rural men⌠excellent point. I recently was visiting my hobby type farm in a rural community. I ran into a classmate and his son. His mid-twenties son will end up taking the entire farm. I donât know the exact value of the farm, but it is easily over $10 million. This boy is good looking, excellent physical condition, intelligent and wealthy or soon to be wealthy. He is single. When the young man left to go home alone, it bothered me. He has little to no chance of finding a young lady and to raise a family.
The Norwegian Bachelor Farmers of Garrison Keillorâs âA Prarie Home Companionâ are a mythic reflection of a process thatâs been going on for as long as civilization. Some believe it to be eugenic â some (like me) dysgenic â some, such as transhumanists (like Keith Henson), irrelevant. Itâs ironic that I actually invited (the aforelinked) Harpending to join my blog and he accepted on the strength my review of his math that Salter used as the basis for his book âOn Genetic Interestsâ and commented on my essay Removing Lewontinâs Fallacy From Hamiltonâs Rule that it was a viable approach to reformulating sociobiology but would require a rather concerted effort in Monte Carlo simulations â an approach people had not been using. So in a sense Harpending was both my nemesis and my only ally â perhaps because he was the most intellectually honest member of the Academy of Sciences. I really miss him.
Another âironyâ is that I moved to Keillorâs Minnesota to work on the computer networking aspect of Bill Norrisâs âBack to the Countryside Via Technologyâ and used to wake up every morning, across the street from an acre or so of computers labeled âFt. Meadâ, my dreams guided by a gentle voice from âA Prairie Home Morning Showâ. Norrisâs forlorn hope of not only preserving The Nation of Settlers but of preventing the vulnerability to nuclear attack implied by centralization of population, was viciously attacked by Wall Street financial press, inducting his middle management to a mutiny that deep-sixed my work on a mass market version of PLATO.
The most ironic aspect of this came decades later when Keillor became a victim of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Henry Harpending was awesome. I was lucky to have spent a day strolling around Salt Lake City with him 12 years ago or so.
Fascinating to read Norrisâ ideas come into fruition over the past couple of years: several of my technologically savvy friends have gone into farming.
Thereâs an article on Am Greatness today: âThird Timeâs the Charm for Trump?â (Nicholas Waddy). Heâs essentially saying itâs so frightening now what the Left is doing, just because Trump is a candidate, we better, kinda,hope he doesnât win. Because look what they did last time he won; this time, it would be scorched earth!
I donât know. I was so frightened in Nov 2016 when those violent Antifa riots started upâand then all the violence in DC on Jan 20. I was really scared he might not be ableâallowedâ to govern.
But he did, magnificently. So it seems to me if we say, well, letâs pick a smaller target, somebody the Left doesnât hate QUITE so muchâ arenât we just admitting defeat? And shoving somebody out front who wonât be as big a challenge to âem?
Nah. Trump is my man. Whatever happens it will be worth it. Letâs wound the serpentâs head, at least.
