The Nobel Peace Prize organisers are investigating a potential leak after online betting surged in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado just hours before she was announced as this year’s winner. https://t.co/7kpcLw7oNR pic.twitter.com/DZMelGQFLN
— Financial Times (@FT) October 10, 2025
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There’s something vaguely scammy about online prediction markets. Maybe not so vague, on second thought.
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Insider trading which never happens in first world liberal democracies, thank god, otherwise we could be screwed
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Two weeks ago, we reported on an insider who won $400K betting on Maduro losing power.
— PredictFolio (@PredictFolio) January 14, 2026
Today, Donald Trump announced that this leaker has been identified and is now in jail.
The Polymarket account linked to him also appears to have been deleted. https://t.co/zxV9juvlqT pic.twitter.com/Pm5jFo0TOV
Grok named this person:
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72125082/united-states-v-perez-lugones/
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Polymarket has always had a whiff of scam about it: the smell of mendacity.
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This stuff with Grok4.2 could go either way:
- Everyone figures “Well… now we have the macrosocial dynamics model Blowhard Bowery has been harping about so maybe he’ll STFU finally.”
- Everyone starts to realize “Uhm… It’s great to have an oracle finally but* even if it weren’t closed source, it would still be uninterpretable hence not actionable for policy intervention.”
The latter is hopeful.
* Another “but” is the classic stopped-clock critique of any prophet. Scott Adams used that one against others quite a lot even as he promoted his own predictive accuracy. It is one thing to have specific questions answered correctly even at a high rate. It is quite another to have a methodology that by its very nature is “provably” general, in the sense that arithmetic is “provably” effective in predicting future observations from past observations.
