Here is a long article, but one worth reading, on the strange situation in Taiwan. Since the end of the Chinese civil war, the percentage of people on the island who consider themselves to be Taiwanese rather than Chinese has grown dramatically – but at the same time their willingness to die for independence seems to be declining. Morale in the Taiwanese military is seriously eroding:
“Low morale is severely affecting Taiwan’s defense as the country faces a dramatic shortage in troops, with some combat units dropping below 80% staffing due to early retirements and discharges.”
One of the lessons of the Ukrainian situation is that a small country on the borders of a much larger country cannot reasonably expect to achieve its aims militarily. DC Swamp Creatures might be happy to see other people’s sons & daughters sacrificed for their entertainment, but outnumbered technologically-outclassed US forces will clearly not be able to cross the wide Pacific and rescue Taiwan from neighboring giant China.
The obvious solution for Taiwan would be to seek a negotiated Quebec-type status within China – analogous to the Minsk agreements which were supposed to guarantee Donbas residents a form of self-rule within the Ukraine … until the Euros undermined that deal, with devastating consequences for everyone in the Ukraine.
How to get there from here?
At least the official US Government (not the evil Deep State) now would prefer not to have shooting wars. And all parties have an interest in not disrupting Taiwan’s world-leading chip-manufacturing facilities. Will Taiwan be able to avoid the Zelensky problem of a politician who promises peace but instead commits the island to an unwinnable destructive war? A lot rests on the decisions of the Taiwanese people.
