The Redshift

SCANALYZER Tracking with Closeups
1

Elections, not physics.

Michael Pruser on X (@MichaelPruser) has been posting political party registration data for a subset of states, permitting comparisons of November 2024 v. November 2020 numbers. Here’s a quick look at those data. This analysis considers only Republican (R) and Democrat (D) party registrations; independents are not included.

Data are available for 25 of 50 states. R won 10 of those states in 2020, 13 in 2024. Registrations shifted towards R from D in 24 of 25, by as much as 1,212,171 voters in Florida. That represented a +11.6% change in the R+D total in Florida from 2020. Only Colorado shifted blue, by 10,031 voters (0.5% of the R+D total). Largest percentage increases for R were in Wyoming (+23.5%), West Virginia (+16.4%), and Idaho (+15.7%).

Three states shifted from plurality D to R: FL (from -134,244 to +1,077,927 registrations), KY (from -103,690 to +150,471), and West Virginia (from -8,512 to +144,090). Of course, the latter two states have been solidly red for some time and party registrations have lagged far behind voting patterns.

Encouraging shifts for R include Pennsylvania (from -685,818 net registrations in 2020 to -286,283 in 2024) and Nevada (from -86,723 to -7,176), both won by Trump in 2024.

Of the 25 states, R registrations increased in 19 and decreased in 6. Some states do voter roll cleanups and that might account for some of the decreases. D registrations decreased in 22 states, rising only in New Jersey, Delaware, and Kansas. The D increase in Kansas (6,574) was eclipsed by the R registration increase of 38,082 voters. The D registration advantage declined in the other two states as well.

Net shift among the 25 states was towards R by 3,787,374 voters. This flipped the two-party total from a 2,550,295 voter advantage for D in 2020 to a 1,237,079 R margin in 2024.

For context, as of December 2024 posted numbers, Trump increased his vote total from 2020 by 3,077,642 votes.

Two maps, first showing percentage shift of the R+D total (dominated by small states), and the second showing raw net registration shift (dominated by Florida and Pennsylvania).

fig1
fig1700×500 40.2 KB

fig2
fig2700×500 38.2 KB

3 Likes
2

Why is the Supreme Court election Wisconsin on April 1?

1 Like
3

Asked and answered.

2 Likes
4

We could still call it a cosmological redshift.

1 Like
5

Remember that favorite old song of socialists everywhere, The Red Flag? There was the USSR’s Red Army which proved that Communists could beat Fascists, and the Red Army Choir which proved that Communists could sing. We still have Red China with its scarlet banner, although it is no longer politically correct to refer to Communist China that way. As a result of all that, when the US military arranges war games, the Bad Guys are always the Red Team, fighting against our guys, the Blue Team.

That was the way of the world, until some Far Left joker in a TV studio decided to flip the colors and make Red the color of the Far Right. The sad part is that the Republicrats went along with this inversion of the Left Wing’s historical claim to the color Red. This unwillingness to fight Demonrat media is only part of the reason why so many of us have zero confidence in the Republicrats – and why the number of “Independents” is growing so substantially.

Let’s choose not to accept the Far Left’s use of “red” to characterize the “Not the Democrats”.

2 Likes
6

This always puzzled me. It was someone at NBC if memory serves.

Red is the color of the Left the word around, except in the US. Are these corporate media people this ignorant? I don’t see how it helps the Left especially. This seems more like a case of incompetence than malice.

3 Likes
7

ChatGPT’s take on the subject is pasted below, for what that’s worth. I distinctly recall being rather irritated by the use of red for R and blue for D when that first started but I think that ship has sailed. I also recall CNN as starting it but ChatGPT makes no specific accusation.

The use of red for Republicans (GOP) and blue for Democrats in the U.S. is actually a relatively recent development in political media history. Here’s why it happened:

1. No Standard Colors Before 2000

Before the 2000 U.S. presidential election, media outlets did not consistently use red for Republicans and blue for Democrats. In fact, different networks used different color schemes:

• NBC (1976, 1980) : Used blue for Republicans, red for Democrats .

• CBS & ABC: Sometimes used the opposite.

• The Reason? There was no official or historical standard, and colors often switched between elections.

2. The 2000 Presidential Election Cemented the Colors

During the Bush vs. Gore presidential election in 2000, major news networks used:

• Red for Republican (George W. Bush)

• Blue for Democrat (Al Gore)

Since the election was highly contested (with recounts in Florida dragging on for weeks), maps showing red Republican states and blue Democratic states were broadcast constantly. The public became accustomed to this red-GOP, blue-Democrat association.

By the time the election was decided, the color scheme had stuck permanently in public consciousness.

3. Historical Associations

While the 2000 election solidified the color scheme, there were some historical precedents:

• Red traditionally symbolized revolution (e.g., Soviet Union, Communist movements), so early on, some media were reluctant to use it for conservatives.

• Blue often symbolized loyalty and stability, which made it a natural fit for the status quo party.

• But in the U.S., the red-blue flip was more about media choices than ideology.

4. The Colors Are Now Standard

Since 2000, all major media outlets (CNN, Fox, NBC, ABC, etc.) have consistently used red for Republicans and blue for Democrats, making it the de facto standard.

2 Likes
8

“De Facto” only because Institutional Republicrats are spineless creatures who grovel at the feet of left-wing media. They went along with this recent color inversion because they absolutely refuse to contest anything left-wing media does or says. That is why the real shift in political allegiances has been not from the Far Left to squishy trembling conservative – it is from both of those to Independent.

Of course, Left Wing media tries to ignore the rise of the independent voter, for obvious reasons. And Republicrats stick their fingers in their ears and try not to notice that voters see them as venal politicians, not as rock-ribbed conservatives.

3 Likes
9

All true. I bet the color inversion still occasionally confuses people almost everywhere else. Not only is red the commie color but blue is the color of conservatism everywhere but in the US. Then again, Republicans haven’t really conserved anything for decades so maybe red isn’t a bad choice after all.

3 Likes
10

First of all, I meant to mention in the OP that this post was in honor of the Democrats’ historically low approval ratings, being 29% per CNN and 27% per Axios.

Maybe we should embrace the red color. As you know, many cultures celebrate the color red above others, including the epicenters of 20th century communism (Russia and China) and that may be why the communists co-opted it. Let’s take it back. Red represents life, vitality, energy, wakefulness. Blue is pacific, much like somnolent National Review conservativism which seemed mainly dedicated to ceding ground to the left in the most genteel way possible. Things have changed, the political landscape has been realigned. There are certainly many spineless establishment GOP dorks. But maybe their days are numbered. They can follow the Cheneys into what is left of the D party.

5 Likes
11

I agree. The blue color has been ruined by the legacy conservatives — not just in the US. Anyhow, the red/blue reversal is too deeply ingrained in American political culture. It’s too late to go back.

4 Likes
12

Maybe we should lie back and think of England?

This is the Stockholm Syndrome approach to politics – and is the reason why the decline of the Far Left Red group has not been matched by a growth in supporters of the Common Sense Blue group. It is obvious that lots of citizens who voted for President Trump did NOT vote for down-ticket Republicrats – for good reason!

Yes, the color inversion that Far Left media imposed on spineless Republicrats is a small thing. But I think it was Mark Steyn who observed that caving on small items was the highway to caving on big issues.

1 Like
13
7 Likes
14

Frighteningly accurate.

5 Likes