This Week’s Book Review - The Greatest Scientific Gamble

Looking for a good read? Here is a recommendation. I have an unusual approach to reviewing books. I review books I feel merit a review. Each review is an opportunity to recommend a book. If I do not think a book is worth reading, I find another book to review. You do not have to agree with everything every author has written (I do not), but the fiction I review is entertaining (and often thought-provoking) and the non-fiction contain ideas worth reading.

Book Review

The Race for the Bomb

Reviewed by Mark Lardas
March 8, 2026

“The Greatest Scientific Gamble: A Story of Impossible Odds, Rival Scientists, and the Atomic Bomb,” by Michael Joseloff, Michigan State University Press, March 2026, 284 pages, $79.95 (Hardcover), $34.59 (Paperback), $34.59 (E-book)

Before World War II, the international physics community was small, a clubby group of scientists who were all friends. Werner Heisenberg’s attendance at the 1939 Summer School of Theoretical Physics in Ann Arbor, Michigan illustrates this. He stayed with his good friend Samuel Goudsmit, a Dutch Jew who came to the US in 1927. Heisenberg also met two other good friends that trip, Enrico Fermi and Robert Oppenheimer. The next month, World War II began, sundering these friendships forever.

“The Greatest Scientific Gamble: A Story of Impossible Odds, Rival Scientists, and the Atomic Bomb,” by Michael Joseloff, explores the mid-century physics community and the race to develop the atomic bomb. It examines both the US and German efforts.

Over the next four years those at the Summer School joined different efforts to develop a bomb. Heisenberg for the Germans, the others for the US. Fermi developed the first self-sustaining nuclear reaction. Oppenheimer headed the Manhattan Project, developing two different types of atomic bombs. Goudsmit joined Alsos, devoted to determining how far Germany’s atomic program had gotten. Joseloff shows much of the US effort was motivated by fear Nazi Germany would develop a nuclear bomb first.

This is one of the rare recent books that looks at German efforts in detail. It shows German failure was not due solely to Hitler’s driving the Jews out of Germany, although it contributed. But Heisenberg’s errors and arrogance contributed.

Heisenberg started with the assumption a bomb had to be made from U-238, with a critical mass in tons. By the time he realized his error, the US had moved ahead. When asked in 1942 by Albert Speer, Germany’s production minister, how long it would take to develop a bomb, Heisenberg stated it would take three to four years, turning down an offer of two million Reichsmarks to develop a bomb. Instead, Heisenberg asked for 350,000 Reichsmarks to develop a uranium engine for submarines.

He also chose heavy water as a moderator, instead of graphite, which was superior. When Kurt Diebner’s stated using uranium cubes instead of the sheets Heisenberg was unsuccessfully using, Heisenberg ignored Diebner’s results, because Heisenberg refused to believe Diebner’s results. Heisenberg viewed the rival Diebner as incompetent. In this case Diebner was right.

“The Greatest Scientific Gamble” is a real-life thriller, a book worthy of the best tales of Alan Furst. The difference is this book is history, not fiction.

Mark Lardas, an engineer, freelance writer, historian, and model-maker, lives in League City. His website is marklardas.com.

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Various people have speculated over the years that Heisenberg’s bad decisions for the Nazi nuclear bomb project were deliberate attempts to derail it. How could we ever know in a world of uncertainty?

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The book examined the possibility. And Heisenberg’s uncertainty. Made for fascinating reading.

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Heisenberg started with the assumption that a bomb had to be made from U-238, with a critical mass in tons. By the time he realized his error, the US had moved ahead.

When did he realize this? My recollection was that he essentially always thought U-235 was the key. The thing about two tons referred to U-235 and was either his error or his lie to kill the bomb project.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02775

Thus, I am inclined to disbelieve anything but an early switch to U-235.

Another possibility is that the book’s reference to a U-238 bomb related to making a Pu-239 bomb from U-238. See report of 2/26/1942 presentation:

Second, after noting the difficulty of separating a sufficient amount of U-235 isotope from natural uranium for the attainment of a bomb’s critical mass, he proceeded to describe the much easier process of acquiring the fissionable bomb-material of plutonium from decaying U-238. Heisenberg finished the lecture by effectively issuing a challenge to his listeners: “The Americans seem to be pursuing this line of research with particular urgency.”

https://scholarworks.umb.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=ghc

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