This Week’s Book Review - To Turn The Tide


Looking for a good read? Here is a recommendation. I have an unusual approach to reviewing books. I review books I feel merit a review. Each review is an opportunity to recommend a book. If I do not think a book is worth reading, I find another book to review. You do not have to agree with everything every author has written (I do not), but the fiction I review is entertaining (and often thought-provoking) and the non-fiction contain ideas worth reading.

Book Review

Stuck in Marcus Aurelius’s Time

Reviewed by Mark Lardas
September 8, 2024

“To Turn the Tide,” by S. M. Stirling, Baen Books, August 2024, 464 pages, $28.00 (Hardcover) , $9.99 (E-book)

You are a mad scientist with a time machine. You learn that a massive thermonuclear war is going to destroy the world in the very near future. What do you do?

In “To Turn the Tide,” a science fiction novel by S. M. Stirling, you pick a time in the distant past to disappear to, like Roman times. You misappropriate research funds to buy everything you need to be comfortable and to play “Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court” in your new home.

As a physicist you know little about the period. You need translators and subject matter experts. Since you are in Vienna, the best time for you to go back to is Second Century Rome. The Empire is at its apogee, but you will be distressingly close to the Marcomanni War and Galen’s Epidemic.

For subject matter experts you lure five historians, an Ivy League professor and four of his graduate students specializing in that period of Roman history to your laboratory on a fraudulent research project just before things go boom. They are not told what it is about. They would either think you were crazy or want to bring families.

That is how Arthur Vandenberg, West Point graduate, former Army Ranger captain, and newly-minted Harvard professor with four of his Harvard graduate students find themselves in the late Roman Empire in the time of Marcus Aurelius. They witnessed the nuclear bomb blast hitting the scientist’s laboratory just as they were transported back in time.

The scientist? He did not quite reach the time machine in time. He left his legs in modern Vienna with fatal results. The five Americans are on their own. They have no plan and no idea what the scientist planned. They know they cannot go back. They watched their world being destroyed. They have resources, one metric ton of goods with a “change your history’s future kit” and enough silver, gold, synthetic gems to finance them.

They get one break. The first man to encounter them is a rich Jewish merchant who is honest and ethical. Ethical is important because technically it would not be dishonest to kill these non-Romans and simply take their goods.

What follows is a fast-paced adventure in the best tradition of SF novels like “Lest Darkness Fall.” With “To Turn the Tide” Stirling has written a page-turner that alternate history buffs will find hard to put down.

Mark Lardas, an engineer, freelance writer, historian, and model-maker, lives in League City. His website is marklardas.com.

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Thanks for your review. It is most timely for me, as I just finished reading Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen. It is a deeply researched, minute-by-minute account of one scenario of nuclear war - in this case, started by North Korea. As I’m looking to escape the very uncomfortable emotional ‘fallout’ of that book, after reading your review, I ordered it on Kindle.

If you are interested in many, many facts involving the mechanics of nuclear war - especially the processes formulated by the ‘best and the brightest’ of the various nuclear powers, this book will enlighten you. Inescapable also, is the ancillary notion that a limited nuclear war is a very unlikely possibility. Once MAD has failed, the future vaporizes.

Though I didn’t think my mistrust of and disgust with the state of our formerly-consensual (now totalitarian) governance could possibly worsen, this book accomplished it. Part of systems analysis most always performs a root cause analysis when systems fail. It begins with finding all the causes-in-fact of the outcome.

Most pertinent, to my way of thinking today, is the unnecessary and predictable result of threatening Russia with installation of NATO nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which would enable a nuclear decapitation strike with virtually no warning time. This, of course, was exactly why JFK (and the entire US ruling blob of that time) correctly saw IRBM’s in Cuba as an existential threat to the US. Since our ruling elite have taken leave of their senses, their lust for raw power is blinding themselves to fundamental principles which apply to all; in this case the self-preservation of the Russian nation. A reasonable person with basic powers of reasoning, can predict the existential threat to Russia which would inevitably result from NATO membership for Ukraine.

The US has no fundamental national interest in Ukraine’s borders with Russia. The US could end this war immediately with 1. cessation on materiel and intelligence support, 2. clear assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO (such false assurances were given prior to 2014) and 3. a call to negotiate an agreed partition of Ukraine, such that those regions which wish to be part of Russia (as demonstrated by an honest and credible plebiscite) are able to do so.

In considering this, imagine Chinese nuclear delivery mean vehicles were installed in Cuba or one region of Mexico had seceded from the nation and joined Russia instead. What security interests would be invoked by the US in either scenario? It’s not complicated, as the “Cuban Missile Crisis” (in Russia it was called the Turkish Missile Crisis due to the Thor IRBM’s, which had been previously stationed in Turkey. BTW, how about Taiwan? Does US national security - up to and including risking nuclear war - really attach to defending against re-unification of Taiwan with its historical motherland?

There is NO necessity for the US to continue to pressure Russia - as it has been doing for a decade - in regards to Russia’s understandable and existential national security interest in Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO. Every nation must be permitted to define its own reasonable national security interests without foreign interference. No nation must bow to what the US tries to decide for them.

Such brute force exercises of delusional mono-polar power are antithetical to common sense, statecraft and a peaceful international order. Notwithstanding its arrogant public lectures to others about “our democracy” and other shibboleths, the US has become the world’s largest purveyor of unnecessary warfare. As I sift through my 80 years of life, the most powerful emotion I have about my country (once I deeply believed in its goodness) is a growing sense of betrayal. I never used to imagine that my country would lead the pack when it came to becoming the first and proximal cause-in-fact of a global, perhaps extinction-of-species-level (and certainly civilization-ending) nuclear war. I am bereft of the optimism for the US, the world and humanity, which once suffused my childhood.

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One hypothesis is that today’s DC Swamp Creatures have a severe case of Reagan envy.

After all, Ronaldus Maximus (to echo the late Rush Limbaugh) launched the Strategic Defense Initiative (much derided back then by the usual suspects) which led to the collapse of the USSR when it could not keep up with the expenses.

Today’s Reagan-haters seem to think they can out-perform RR by promoting a proxy war in the Ukraine which will lead to the collapse of what they fervently believe is a corrupt & creaking Russia. Then there will be lots of opportunities for self-enrichment after that collapse, just as there was after the collapse of the USSR.

The Swamp Creatures apparently don’t hear the floor creaking as they walk up & down their taxpayer-provided offices. Apparently they do not realize how much damage the termites they have released have done to the foundations of their own precious “democracy”. Some entity is going to collapse, but it probably won’t be Russia.

The Global Thermonuclear War that Our Betters may trigger on their way out would obviously be horrific – but I really doubt that it would end civilization. Places from Brazil to Singapore to Mongolia would probably suffer little damage. And for the places that do suffer direct hits, there is the model of today’s vibrant Nagasaki to inspire the survivors.

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You know guys, this is a time travel/alternate history novel. The thermonuclear war at the beginning of the book was a plot device to leave them stuck in the 2nd century AD. It is not intended as a book about thermonuclear war. It’s a book about how five smart people manage to supercharge progress while avoiding getting themselves killed for witchcraft,

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A good, long book review of the book version of Luttwak’s PhD thesis. Luttwak was most famous for his 1969 how-to book Coup d’Etat: A practical Handbook, also reviewed by John Psmith. (His pseudonym is a Wodehouse reference.)

What lessons can we draw from this book for today? There are many, but I will leave you with one. Reading about the Roman client state system gave me an uncomfortably familiar feeling. Can we think of another empire that outsources governance to vestigial polities that pretend to be sovereign, and even get called “allies,” but are actually clients? An easy example is the Warsaw Pact. A more controversial one is present-day America and her dependencies.


More relevant to S.M. Stirling’s alternate history, previous volumes of which I have enjoyed, is John’s wife, Jane’s review:

The top of her list is: Island in a Sea of Time et seq., by S.M. Stirling followed by another Mark mentioned:
Lest Darkness Fall, by L. Sprague de Camp: “An absolute classic of the genre.” then:
A Clash of Eagles et seq., by Alan Smale
Pastwatch: The Redemption of Christopher Columbus, by Orson Scott Card
The Yiddish Policeman’s Union, by Michael Chabon
Ruled Britannia, by Harry Turtledove
Seventh Son et seq., by Orson Scott Card
Civilisations, by Laurent Binet
GURPS Alternate Earths and GURPS Alternate Earths 2, by Kenneth Hite, Craig Neumeier, and Michael S. Schiffer
Day After Ragnarok, by Kenneth Hite

commenters mentioned:
1632 et. seq. by Eric Flint
The Cross Time Engineer by Leo Frankowski, and the rest of the Conrad Stargard series - Connecticut Yankee bit in medieval Poland just before the Mongols are due. He gets some help from his uncle uptime, theres a novel with a parallel plot of discovering time travel, best wish fulfillment plot in that genre. Frankowski was a custom production equipment engineer / CEO.

The Technicolor Time Machine, Harry Harrison - light, brief, fun. Hollywood low-budget Norse Saga shot on location.
The Aquiliad, Book I : Aquilla in the New World - S.P. Somtow, aka Somtow Sucharitkul. Romans with steamships vs. the Lakoti. Funny. Also check out Mallworld by the same author, a weird as some of Rudy Rucker’s books.

There are many more examples here:
Sliding Scale of Alternate History Plausibility - TV Tropes Examples
Alternate History Wank - TV Tropes Examples: Literature
WARNING: TVTropes is an info-hazard, more addictive than YouTube^Facebook.

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