Data as of 12/29/2024, from here and here. I presume these data are final as the certification deadline for all 50 states plus D.C. has passed. That means perhaps even California, which has surely run out of fingers and toes on which to count by now, is finally done.
Harris 2024 received 75,019,230 votes vs. Biden’s 2020 total of 81,286,454, a deficit of 6,267,224 votes. Trump 2024 beat his 2020 totals 77,303,568 to 74,225,926, an increase of 3,077,642 votes. Other candidates’ total votes increased very slightly, from 3,102,095 to 3,165,211. As a consequence, Trump won the popular vote by 2,284,338 votes over Harris.
Harris’ totals bested Biden’s in only 6 states, led by Georgia (a 74,384 vote gain, but dwarfed by Trump’s 201,263 vote increase), Wisconsin (+37,363 vs. Trump’s +87,442), North Carolina (+31,083 vs. Trump’s +139,648), Utah (+2,284 vs. Trump’s +18,678), Nevada (+1,711 vs. Trump’s +81,315), and Maine (+580 vs. Trump’s +17,207). Note that Trump’s positive increments exceeded Harris’ in all six. Indeed, of those states, Biden won four of them and Harris failed to hold all but one (Maine).
Trump’s raw vote totals increased from 2020 to 2024 in 40 contests, led by Texas (+503,169, Harris was -423,965), Florida (+441,394, Harris was -614,007), New York (+326,902, Harris was -625,691), and the aforementioned Georgia. Trump even picked up 2,490 more ballots in D.C. (vs. Harris’ decline of 23,138 relative to Biden). Trump’s total vote decreased in 11 states, with Washington providing the largest raw decrease (-53,728 votes vs. Harris’ shift of -123,763 votes). All 11 states also saw negative Harris shifts and in every case the Democrat losses exceeded Trump’s.
Total presidential votes cast in 2024 decreased relative to “the most secure election in American history” (2020) by 3,126,466 votes. Total ballots decreased in 30 of 51 contests. The shift was largest in California (-1,660,671 votes), Illinois (-409,132), and New York (-332,044). Domestic migration? My sense is more Republican voters are leaving these states than Democrats, but in each case Republican votes increased even as the totals declined. Not done counting yet, despite certification? Easy to believe for California, less so for New York.
Total presidential ballots cast increased in 21 states, led by Georgia (+270,952), North Carolina (+174,337, despite Hurricane Helene), Michigan (+127,266), Wisconsin (+124,877), and Pennsylvania (+117,820). I doubt the latter three are growing very quickly, so this might be attributable to GOTV efforts (such as by Scott Presler who, along with Elon Musk buying Twitter/X, might have saved the Republic). The next three are Nevada (+79,464), Texas (+79,312), and Virginia (+45,417). The former two are probably benefitting from fleeing Californians, but I note Florida’s 2024 vote total lagged its 2020 vote by 156,756. That makes the net shift towards Trump (1,055,401 votes) there seem even more remarkable.
The genius of the Electoral College is that you can’t steal the election everywhere from just anywhere. It does not matter by how much you run up the score in a state you are going to win anyway. Thus, determination of the winner depends on a handful of states – the usual suspects, including Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada – and the dirty deeds need to be done in or to those states. Perhaps in 2024 the Democrats were again able to pull more ballots out from under their desks in Georgia but it wasn’t enough this time. Arizona shifted 197,839 votes towards Trump, despite total turnout only increasing by 3,338 ballots, a microscopic amount for a fast-growing state.
So, did Biden cheat his way to his spectacular, record-setting total of 81,286,454 votes? It’s not clear. But, just for grins, suppose you took the votes that went “missing” between 2020 and 2024 for California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Massachusetts – all blue states – and added them back to the total vote ledger. That would have brought 2024’s total presidential vote to 158,488,420, within spitting distance of 2020’s total (158,614,475).
Maybe the answer is Kamala was a particularly bad candidate, and Democrats stayed home (or buried). Or perhaps I have underestimated the attractiveness of voting for the man who faced down Corn Pop, a bad dude who ran with a bunch of bad boys.