Ukraine and Russia: War and Consequences

I must be missing some details. The west is going to have peace talks with each other? They will agree that Russia will withdraw to previous borders, leave Crimea, Putin to be imprisoned, Russia to pay reparations and provide free nat gas to whomever wants it. Anything else we can add to the peace agreement between ourselves?

Another huge diplomatic win for the Biden administration.

This does belong in the Crazy Years.


There’s always a beautiful dollar, or won, to be made.

To the last Ukrainian!


Definitely the Crazy Years! Strange that much-maligned China is the nation to stand up and say that the Emperor has no clothes – can’t have a “peace” talk when one of the belligerents is not invited. We can only speculate why our idiots in the West are encouraging Zelensky by going along with this pointless stupidity.

My guess is that China – in addition to being apparently the only country with a leadership class with IQs in triple digits and an adequate supply of common sense – wants to keep its hands clean, because they see that the optimum solution to the problem of the Ukraine will be a UN-mandated long-term large Chinese military presence in neutral rump Ukraine to make sure that both NATO and Russia stay out. China is also about the only country that realistically could financially underwrite the reconstruction of rump Ukraine … and China has well-proven methods for dealing with the corruption which is endemic to that sorry place. As for the Europeans waking up to find Chinese missiles on their eastern borders – could not happen to a more deserving group of people.


America has no Ukraine Plan B except more war - Asia Times

David Goldman is usually worth paying attention to, since he appears to be the kind of independent thinker who is prepared to speak (or write) fearlessly – the kind of character who is not welcome on the pages of the New York Times.

"Somewhere last weekend a few dozen former Cabinet members, senior military officers, academics and think tank analysts met to evaluate the world military situation. I can say that I haven’t been so scared since the fall of 1983, when I was a junior contract researcher doing odd jobs for then Special Assistant to the President Norman A Bailey at the National Security Council. …

Remarkably, not a word was said about a possible negotiated solution to the conflict. Any negotiated outcome at this juncture would award Russia the Eastern Ukrainian oblasts that it has annexed and probably give Russia a buffer zone reaching to the east bank of the Dnieper River – followed by a normalization of economic relations with Western Europe. …

No one disputed the data I presented. And no one believed that Russia is taking 25,000 casualties a month. Facts weren’t the issue: The assembled dignitaries, a representative sampling of the foreign policy establishment’s intellectual and executive leadership, simply couldn’t imagine a world in which America no longer gave the orders. They are accustomed to running things and they will gamble the world away to keep their position."


Do you remember the Budapest memorandum from 1994?

I know a Latvian fellow who hates Russia. His life mission is to destroy Russia. He was born when Andropov was president or premier or whatever the title was

He actually believes USA is obligated to protect Ukraine because of the Budapest memorandum.


Thank you for reminding me of this.


It’s not a treaty which requires 2/3 majority approval from Senate


Another item for the “Read This and Weep” stack:
Russia’s foreign debt fell by nearly 20% in 2023, data shows — RT Business News

Russia’s foreign debt reached a historic high of over $700 billion in 2014. The liabilities began a relatively steady decline since then, due to Western sanctions imposed in 2014 over the Crimean reunification and to the withdrawal of capital by non-residents. The new sanctions campaign unleashed by the West against Moscow since 2022 has further accelerated foreign-debt decline.

Sanctions! A great way to turn customers into eventual competitors. Why are Our Betters too dumb to recognize this?


This is painful to contemplate for the poor, misled Ukrainians. It seems our deep state apparatchiks cannot content themselves with killing us - their so-called “protected” “citizens”. Their hubris demands killing people all around the world for misbegotten ideological reasons. As I regularly ask: how can they not see that from Russia’s perspective, Ukraine in NATO is the same existential threat to Russia as Russian IRBM’s in Cube were to the US in 1963. Naturally, US propaganda neglected to mention the THOR IRBM’s the US had previously installed in Turkey! Can they really not see? Not see? Can it be that the NotSee Party is in charge in Washington? Whatever it is called, it is joined completely at the molecular level with big tech, and that is the very definition of fascism (ignoring the definition of fascism, the MSM calls “fascist” anyone not enthusiastically supporting the neo-Maoist democrat party; speaking of repetitive propaganda).


My acquaintance in Latvia :latvia: has blind spots. He supports aid to Ukraine and NATO membership to Ukraine.

His world view is that Russia has been evil for 1000 years or longer and that every one including the west must sacrifice everything to defeat Russia.

I understand why he hates Russia but expecting everyone to see the world from his geopolitical lens is childish and dangerous

He believes that NATO membership protects Latvia :latvia: from Russia


This attack on Russia in Moscow is the Rubicon moment for Russia.
Now there is no turning back.
I hope you will like my different posts.


Hence peace is only temporary in the outer until we make peace in our inner … slaying our demons.

With respect, Mr. Lorenzen, there may be something else to consider. We all wrestle with our demons (often losing), but we mess up only ourselves and often our families in the process; we generally don’t impose burdens on the broader community. The demon that really hurts society is the desire of some individuals to lord it over the rest of us. It would be nice to think that such a defective gene could be bred out of the human population – but maybe this defect is not genetic? Anyhow, as long as that defect remains in the human population, there will be struggles in the “outer”.

As for the sad situation in the Ukraine, I will continue to beat the drum that Russia clearly seeks a stable long-term internationally-acceptable legal solution. The obvious long-term solution for Rump Ukraine (the one which no-one is talking about) would be a UN mandate to China to maintain a permanent large military peace-keeping force in de-militarized Rump Ukraine with the twin objectives of (1) keeping NATO/EU/US military out, and (2) keeping Russia’s military out. China also has the money to invest in rebuilding Rump Ukraine, and has well-established methodologies for dealing with the Ukraine’s world-leading corruption.


Dearest Gavin,

You are right that the outer component what we call society can develop into a very painful structure and suppress and oppress its citizens and its neighbours.
But the ancient seers or guides of humanity have never supported one specific modus operandi for a society as they saw this as a common learning field for all citizens. However they always preferred rulers with the highest personal integrity and who showed fairness and compassion.
Our “problem” today is that we find almost no such leader anymore.
Hence our deeply troubled world as we see today.

With respect to Ukraine, which I have followed since 2014 and seen the trouble emerging, we can discuss and imagine many outcomes of this conflict.
I started writing my substack as a way for me to externalise my feelings and view points which may or may not be right.
View points are just that, a point of view, and everyone has one :wink:
But as long as we can exchange our views in a respectful way and listen to each others view points then a dialogue can happen and if we are open to change then we can all learn in the process.
However this has almost evaporated from society today hence our crazy world and we are left with “my way or the highway” attitude which will help no one.


Welcome aboard HL!


We have cussed and discussed Ukraine extensively. I suspect most everyone is agreed that the current “war” is not really in the best interests of Ukraine; it is, however, apparently in the “best interests” of the CIA and its many elite supporters who benefit from any state of war.

This may soon be over despite our and the West’s best efforts to keep it going. Gavin’s proposal is not much to my liking, as it seems all it does is replace a military with yet another military. Recollect what happened in the Philippines when Teddy “liberated” them from (?) Spanish rule. WE became the “new” military and were faced with the Moro insurrection. The Philippinos wanted freedom not yet another controlling colonising force. I suspect Ukraine might well react similarly.

But what is now on the near horizon is Russia’s victory in Ukraine - and that with little risk to their men. Russia has now adopted a new strategic initiative, and NATO and Ukraine seem to have no credible response. The Russian attacks now are on the Ukrainian electrical grid. They have wrought havoc on the distribution of electricity and are now going after the electrical production means. Kind of reminds me of our own 8th Air Force assault on Germany. They managed to hit every single major production point in Germany before D-Day.


Given that Russia’s disinformation warfare has been killing folks in the West, the immediate destruction of the information warfare elements in Russia could be the best next step. It’s not a very expensive one, and Putin’s power depends on it.

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