Ukraine and Russia: War and Consequences


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Fell.

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:notes: “The Rosgvardiya, the Duma, the G.R.U.
They’ve an open-window policy for senior staff
” :notes:

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She was 82 years old according to this Newsweek report.

“On the surface, it looks like a suicide, but investigators are also checking the version of an accident,” the Russian Telegram channel MK: Urgent News, said on Tuesday.

According to Russian news outlets, Bondarenko had worked at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences since 1988, and was appointed director of the economic research organization, the International N.D. Kondratiev Foundation in 1993—a position she held until her her death on Monday.

She completed her postgraduate studies at the institute in 1991 after completing a dissertation on the topic of political economy, and published more than 220 works in Russia and in international publications during her career.

But windows are turning out to be fairly dangerous in modern Russia, especially for individuals of some prominence. Newsweek helpfully links to a mercifully short, yet still alarming, list of deaths from accidental falls since the conflict in Ukraine started.

Ms. Bondarenko’s publication record - see Google Scholar search results here - does not appear to be particularly controversial to this correspondent, but it’s very difficult to discern the real web of relationships from a distance.

One thing that stands out is that she completed her postgraduate degree in 1993, when she would have been 51 years old if the reference to her age today in the Newsweek piece is accurate.

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I only scanned the first page of her scholar results. She writes a lot about development. The word development is in the title of every entry except 2.

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A deputy director of the 89th satellite communication center blown up by Ukrainians in Moscow:

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:sunglasses: So now we know who pushed her out the window. These commies are so predictable.

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Defenestration is a tradition in that part of the world. Remember, if you are killing someone to make a point, you want other people to know the point that has been made.

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It depends on what list you’re on:

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“Analysis of the video footage and assessment made at the incident site indicates a high likelihood that the children’s hospital suffered a direct hit rather than receiving damages due to an intercepted weapons system,” Danielle Bell, Head of Mission for the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, stated speaking to journalists in Geneva.

With all due respect to Miss Bell, her presumed detailed knowledge of military matters, and her arm’s length analysis from remote Geneva – how could a deliberate successful attack on a packed children’s hospital yield so few casualties? And is it wise to base a UN analysis on “data” collected by the Zelensky regime, which has an obvious dog in this fight and a track record of fabrications?

Clearly, the best thing for everyone would be to bring this unnecessary war to a close. The major obstacle to that happy event seems to be the “democratic” regime in Kiev which has cancelled elections, locked up opposition politicians, and taken complete control over the media.

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Well, if the Zelensky regime has a track record of fabrications, odds are so does Miss Bell. So I would say - cut off military aid and then let them fight if they wish to. But not onour dime. THEN we can honestly say (tongue in cheek), that “democracy has won out.”

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I don’t know if this should be filed under Humor or Pathos.

"Draft dodging has been a major problem for Kiev since it announced a general mobilization soon after the start of the conflict in February 2022. 
 In July, Ukrainian media reported that local doctors were offering leg-breaking services as “a unique opportunity to avoid mobilization.”

Of course, this is according to Ukrainian media as reported by Russia Today – so who can tell what the truth is.
Ukraine brings first female prisoners into army — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

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The most painful thing about that is that so many of those mistakes could have been easily avoided if Biden had people in his team who genuinely understood what Putin’s Russia was and how things worked with the Kremlin mafia. Heaven knows, and we know it too, that the Biden administration, along with other Western leaders, spent way too much time in vain trying to talk Putin out of invading Ukraine. We all remember those endless, humiliating summits, diplomatic powwows, meetings, calls, and conversations behind closed doors that resulted in nothing in the winter of 2021-22— nothing but Putin and his cronies openly jesting at their frantic attempts and spitting at their faces. The decision to invade and devour Ukraine had been made a long time ago. Putin’s TV propaganda within Russia was only using those pictures to send a message to the domestic audience: Look, the American president is now seeking Putin’s attention and is reasoning with Russia, but who is he in the face of the inevitable?

A very unexpected and catastrophic Russian defeat at Kyiv (which essentially spelled the failure of Putin’s “special military operation”) in 2022 should have destroyed a lot of long-ingrained illusions. And it shouldn’t have taken months of Ukrainian begging to start providing Ukraine with artillery to stand against Russian “walls of fire,” destroying everything on their way in Donbas. It shouldn’t have taken months of Ukrainian begging to provide Ukraine with a handful of HIMARS systems that effectively derailed Russian offensive campaigns in the summer of 2022 and precipitated the liberation of Kherson in November 2022. It shouldn’t have taken months and years of Ukrainian begging to provide Ukraine with PATRIOT missile defense systems, which not only did not lead to “World War III” but instead demonstrated the greatest results in the type’s entire operational history and set a number of milestones in defending the Ukrainian capital from Russian missiles and saving lives. It shouldn’t have taken months and years of Ukrainian begging to give the green light to provide Ukraine with armored vehicles, particularly M2 Bradleys, which demonstrated extraordinary results in Ukrainian hands. The same goes with tanks, particularly a handful of M1 Abrams, which unblocked the scarce deliveries of Leopard tanks from European nations. It shouldn’t have taken years of Ukrainian begging to get long-outdated ATACMS missiles that not only did not trigger “a major escalation” but effectively wiped out Russian military airfields and sophisticated air defense systems used against Ukraine. And, of course, it shouldn’t have taken years to finally admit the fact that the policy of not allowing Ukraine to use American weapons to strike Russia’s military infrastructure in Russian territory is deeply absurd and ineffective; it only provides the aggressor with a safe haven for escalating its offensive operations and terror bombing campaigns in Ukraine and only encourages to move on unpunished.

Amid endless “escalation management” and heeding Russia’s “nuclear threats,” way too much time was given to Putin to recover from the initial stress of the failure in Ukraine, to restructure production and economy, to adapt to sanctions, to find allies in Iran and North Korea, and reshape Russia into a totalitarian state obsessed with exterminating a neighboring country.

Yet — even though so many mistakes were made, every Ukrainian should remember that we owe a lot to the old man. Even though there have been a lot of incompetent Putin appeasers whispering things in his ear, without his faith and without his decisions — even though many of them were half-hearted, terribly belated, and questionable — there wouldn’t be the Ukraine as we know it now. Half of us would have been rotting in mass graves with Russian bullets in our foreheads and with our heads tied behind our backs. For this, we will always be thankful as we should. But there were critical, terrible mistakes that prevented Joe Biden from having a large geopolitical victory right now. I really, really hope that whoever replaces the old man in the Oval Office will be smart enough to draw conclusions.

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A full paragraph stating stuff that I expect our leaders to know. If only we had done x. If only we had ran the ball more says the fanboy of some football team that just got beat. The coach is supposed to know when and how often to run the ball. The fanboy, not being capable of coaching, believes they can coach but only after the game is over.

The most obvious of these if only arguments is going to be if only the Western population truly supported Ukraine. The reality is that the West has a tendency to get war weary. The reality is that the West has lost the trust of at least 30% of its population and this may be as high as 50%. You cannot win a war if our form of governments without the support of the people. Those in power need to understand that reality.

It is also a little hard to understand his logic. The Biden administration was so dumb they didn’t know any of this, but spent all the time leading up to the war telling Russia we will crush you if you invade. If he is right, then they are incompetent in which case you don’t support going to war with incompetent leadership.

The coach is totally incompetent. We will win next week.

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This really should be no surprise - at least to America. We are traders at heart. We have always been traders. We get in trouble when we think like Teddy Roosevelt - that to be a “great nation” we have to meddle in other people’s affairs. We don’t, don’t like to, and have historically done very well just trading with others. Look at our track record during the Napoleonic Wars. We made tons of money - off the Brits and the French. Indeed, Brit merchants were upset because WE could bring over much desired goods from France, and they couldn’t. WE never wanted to go to war - in either WWI OR WWII. The former we were betrayed by Wilson, and the latter we were tricked by FDR.

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Russian media after the EU ban on propaganda:

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The Russia Ukraine conflict is over.
The prisoner exchange is the first goodwill act of the parties involved.
It was an all-for-all exchange which only happens at the end of a conflict.
And the beauty is that Ukraine was not involved 

Which means - what many of us have said during the whole conflict - that this conflict was between the west and Russia 
 just happening in Ukraine.
All news media is now saying that the conflict is over in 6 to 9 months.
They say this to prepare all the “die-hard” Ukraine supporters.
Many Ukrainians in Ukraine are against the neo-nazi regime that came to power in the coup d’etat in 2014 and they are starting to become a resistance 
 burning the cars (during the night) of some military officials in the streets in the big Ukrainian cities.
Why 6 to 9 months???
Well the US election has to pass and most likely the inauguration of the next US president.
Remember that last months 60,000 Ukrainians died in this conflict 
 in one month 
 which was the same death total of the whole Vietnam war !!!
It is good that the conflict ends.
Many “die-hard” Ukrainian supporter will however have many difficulties with the fact that Russia will keep the land that they have taken but that is simply the reality of war.
This is also the reason why Elensky will make a referendum about this topic.
He has to because the Azov battalion will not allow this to happen.
This referendum is Elensky’s fig leaf and hope for survival


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Interesting issue – Who will be allowed to vote in that referendum, if it comes to pass?

What about all the Ukrainians who voted with their feet and went to Europe to avoid Zelensky’s war? What about all the Ukrainians who went to Russia to avoid Zelensky’s war? What about the “Ukrainians” in the Donbas who were being attacked by Zelensky’s forces for years before Russia’s “unprovoked” attack? Are all or some of those groups to be allowed to vote? And if so, how? The mechanics of that referendum could become very complex.

And if it is possible to hold a referendum, then surely it would be possible to hold an actual “election” for president – you know, like in an actual “democracy”. But it is very likely that holding the presidential election which Zelensky has cancelled would result in him getting the post-WWII Churchill treatment and being shown the door. What would the new President of the Ukraine do?

The most interesting speculation is what will the real proponents of this proxy war – US, NATO, EU, UK – do if the Ukrainians decide simply to surrender?

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I thought I read Zelensky talked to China about peace talks. If true, it suggests he believes that the West is using Ukraine. He cannot discuss what he thinks may be best with the West. That surely isn’t good.

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