Mr. L – does Russia really want a “Total Victory”, which would leave Russia with borders directly abutting hostile Euro states? Perhaps not!
Back in 2021, in an effort to stop Zelensky’s genocide of Russian-speaking Ukrainians – (sorry, the victims were not Palestinian Muslims, so we are not allowed to use the word “genocide”) – Russia took the unusual step of sending public draft treaties to the US and NATO. Looking at the Wikipedia summary (I know! I know!), we see:
that NATO members commit to no further enlargement of the alliance, including in particular to Ukraine
that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997
a ban on deployment of intermediate-range missiles in areas where they could reach the other side’s territory
a ban on any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia
language on consultative mechanisms, such as the NATO–Russia Council, and on the establishment of a hotline
It seems that what Russia really wants is a non-hostile environment between themselves & Western Europe, benefitting both sides. It is unfortunate that the “leaders” of the West chose war, war over jaw, jaw.
This approximates the position of Tulsi Gabbard, for which senate demoncrats in their usual righteous indignation, high dudgeon and elevated-by-an-octave voices (no hormones involved, probably) accused her of everything but being the devil herself. What performances! Adam Schiff is despicable beyond words.
If anyone does not follow Gilbert Doctorow on substack, I would recommend signing up. He is based in the Heart of Darkness (Brussels), but spent many years in Russia and understands the language. One of his contributions is conveying what Russian media are saying about the proxy war in the Ukraine.
(Side comment – anyone who concentrated on telling Russians what Western media are saying to their publics would be guilty of spreading mis-information. Are Russian media better?)
Just one of several reveals in this discussion – which are going to make future peaceable relations between Russia and Europe more difficult :
"The Russians in the present state of open confrontation with virtually the entire West, have finally put up on the screen and shown to their population facts, documentary films that never ever left the archives in the proceeding 70 years, 80 years, 100 years, because they worked against the overriding principles of brotherliness, of forgive and forget, which was the Soviet position on these matters, and which the Soviet Union could afford because it politically controlled those countries which otherwise would be deeply offended by the truth coming out.
The truth about the Finns’ participation in the strangling of Petersburg or Leningrad was never ever shown to the Russian people. It was a deep secret, because the Finns were quiet. The Finns were friends. The Finns had learned their lessons and were no longer a threat to the Russians."
“So, while the mission could operate without American frontline troops, it would rely on “buy-in” from President Trump and the achievement of total air superiority through the Patriot air defence missile system and, presumably, if unspoken at this stage, combat air patrols by the U.S. Air Force.”
Are those the same Patriot missiles which we have seen being blown up by Russian attacks in many videos? The same Patriot missiles which Israel decided to throw out because they could not do the job?
Not to worry, the F-35 combat air patrols will have the Russians quaking in their boots. The odds of one of those planes crashing on top of them are too high for comfort!
The news media is beginning to speculate on where the inevitable Trump/Putin Summit on the Ukraine and other matters will take place – the possibility of an insecure Zoom meeting apparently not being on the table. Current chatter focuses on Saudi Arabia or the UAE, although there may be Russian concerns about potential US influence over those countries.
Obviously, all the duplicitous Euro countries (from Switzerland on down) are non-starters since they are functionally co-belligerents in the Ukrainian proxy war. Europe’s day in the sun is drawing to a close. And Turkey is out of the question after recent events in Syria. Then where?
China might be a possibility, given distances to travel from both Moscow and the Swamp. Beijing would be out – too obvious that the parties would be working to dump Rump Ukraine onto China’s shoulders with a UN mandate for a Chinese military occupation. If there are people in the Chinese government with a sense of humor, they might propose Wuhan.
Practically, there would be a number of valid locations in China.
Shanghai (pop. 30 Million) is a futuristic showcase, although it might cause more Americans to ask “Why can’t we have nice things”.
Xi’an (pop. 9 Million) with its well-preserved city walls is a historic location, as the capital of the first Chinese Empire … oops! Scratch that.
Chongqing (pop. 18 Million) is a spectacular location up-river from Wuhan, although the Chinese might nix that because it was Chiang Kai-Shek’s capital during part of the civil war.
Chengdu (pop. 10 Million), further west in China, is relatively neutral historically-speaking, and provides an opportunity for the leaders to have photo-ops with the Giant Pandas.
Perhaps more reasonably the best location would be somewhere outside major countries – say, Singapore?
An interesting aspect of the current situation with respect to the Ukraine is what it all means for Taiwan.
Pretend you are a Taiwanese politician – 25 million people on an island close to China with 1,400 million people and far from anywhere else. You saw “Joe Biden” walk away from Afghanistan, and the American people did not care. Now you are watching President Trump from the other US political party tossing Zelensky’s Ukraine into the round file. What to do?
It would be foolish for a Taiwanese politician to make Zelensky-style threats against big neighboring China in the expectation that the US will cross the wide Pacific Ocean to defend it. Apparently a US Navy carrier cannot even approach the Suez Canal without running into an island-sized commercial vessel.
Trying to cut a deal to become a self-governing region within China might look like an attractive alternative. OK, there would be a price to be paid. For example, Taiwan would have to retire those complex traditional Chinese characters and switch to using Mainland China’s simplified character set – which really does not sound like too much of a sacrifice.
China has to be careful. It is fully dependent on exports and I am not sure it can feed itself and getting soybeans or corn from Brazil is the same problem as the US Navy defending Taiwan (actually worse).
And how is the gallant little “democracy” of the Ukraine using military force against much bigger Russia working out? Even when the Ukraine had the backing of “Joe Biden”-NATO-EU?
We may be returning to an era of realism. The Ukraine was a loose end from the breakup of the USSR. It could probably still have had a reasonable future today if its politicians had been realistic about their need not to present a threat to their much larger neighbor. Analogously, Taiwan is a loose end from the post-WWII Chinese Civil War. Taiwan is not going to be able to hold off China militarily, nor is it going to be able to rely on the US or the EU to fight to the death to preserve its current status.
The realistic options for Taiwan are limited, and none of them are what people still stuck in the past would want to choose.
Fair point. However, the two situations differ in this important respect: Russia would have left Ukraine alone if not for NATO’s continuing expansion and the West’s regime change of ten years ago. There was no Vicky Nuland for Hong Kong. And China is going to regain Taiwan; there’s no stopping this train.
And, btw, why is NATO still in existence? Its raison d’etre vanished a generation ago. The simplest answer I can come up with is that the West is governed by yesterday-men. Ironically, the new sheriff in town is pushing 80 while being more forward-thinking than most DC pols. Speaking of forward thinking, this guy identified the most serious threat to security of the West in a 48 second clip:
NATO’s continued existence does not reflect the will of the American people. Most of us, if given the choice between building huge military bases in Finland or improving roads & airports at home, would undoubtedly have chosen the latter.
We face a lot of symptoms. Maybe it is time to focus on the cause which leads to those symptoms – the abject failure of “representative democracy”, which most of the time actually represents only the interests of a small self-interested & frequently deluded minority.
“Cui Hongjian, professor of the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said the high-level talks between Moscow and Washington, as well as Trump’s subsequent comments tell us that for the US, the paramount goal at the current stage is to quickly repair its relationship with Russia.”
The article goes on to imply that the Euros are likely to be an impediment to resolving the conflict in the Ukraine. Long road ahead!
