June 27, 2024 US Presidential Debate Live Blog

That assumes the Swamp GOP has any interest in winning elections and changing the direction of the country. Instead, the evidence demonstrates that the Institutional GOP is happy to avoid responsibility and enrich themselves while playing second fiddle to the ruling Democrats – thereby creating the illusion that citizens have a “democratic” choice.

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The Federalist has published a list of 20 big Biden lies.

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Only 20? To be fair it’s an onerous task to count his lies

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It would be shorter to list his truths.

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Why Kamala Harris Would Be Biden’s Likeliest Replacement

So far, Biden has shown no interest in exiting the race following a halting debate performance that raised questions about his age and abilities. But while some Democrats ponder a variety of governors or lawmakers who could step in as nominee, the likeliest alternative to the current ticket remains one led by Harris.

While that path carries risk because Harris’s poll numbers are nearly as lackluster as Biden’s, she is popular enough among Democrats—particularly among women and Black voters—that casting her aside could cause resentment and division within the party.

Since the debate, Harris has emerged as Biden’s strongest public defender.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

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With the mess that Dems are putting upon themselves, this could create an opportunity within Reps to pick out someone more sensible than Trump.

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This highlights the failure of “democracy”. It is glaringly obvious that the Demoncrats have no bench strength – but nor do the Republicrats.

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The rise of Kamala Harris:
Screenshot 2024-07-04 at 11.00.38 AM

Ref:

Our betters should have been reading Scanalyzer for the win.

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My take is her rise in the prediction markets does not reflect as much her innate political talent and ability to win votes, but rather the logical reflection of the current rules which assign the use of the funds raised by the Biden/Harris campaign to either him or her.

Let’s not forget that her performance in the last round was not at all great, and her record of achievement as a VP is scarce. Steve Sailer outlined the MECE options in a post last week (link) and option #4 - though still mislabeled - has the most optimistic outlook on her chances.

Biden announces he is retiring this summer and VP Harris will become President before the Democratic convention. Voter’s largely respond with approval and sympathy toward Joe’s public-spirited sacrifice.

4A. Biden, Obama, the Clintons, Schumer, AOC, Bernie, Manchin, etc., all endorse President Harris for the nomination. She is nominated by acclamation at the convention. This solves the Democrat’s unity problem. (This does now, however, solve the Democrats’ Kamala Problem.)

4B. President Harris announces that she will focus over the next six months on fulfilling the heavy burden of the office of President and will therefore not seek the Presidential nomination at the convention. This solves the Democrats’ Kamala Problem by making her seem like, just like her former boss, a self-sacrificing patriotic public servant.

What needs to be true for something like to come to pass is a) Joe has to want and accept dropping out and b) Kamala has to keep it together between right around now and the election. A generous assist from the friendly MSM could help with the latter, but the former is a bigger problem in my view.

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Buying votes or investing in technology?

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This is a provision of the US CHIPS Act.

Reshoring silicon and semiconductor technology along with investments in adjacent areas is actually a pretty good idea, considering the aftermath of the globalization push that followed the end of the Cold War.

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“Biden-Harris Administration” is an interesting locution. The norm in the past was to only name the president (Clinton Administration, Nixon, Reagan, etc.). I don’t recall anyone ever writing “the Clinton-Gore Administration.”

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Given the communications team for Biden is mainly twenty something girls that have the mentality of their high school years, I am surprised they don’t put a heart around the names.

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“All these newspapers used to have foreign bureaus,” [Ben] Rhodes told the Times in May. “Now they don’t. They call us to explain to them what’s happening in Moscow and Cairo. Most of the outlets are reporting on world events from Washington. The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns. That’s a sea change.”

“They literally know nothing.”

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/media/308940-wheres-the-outrage-over-obamas-fake-news-peddling/

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If they ever heard your suggestion, they might just do it.

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Looks like betting has broken for Shapiro:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8089/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination

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Polymarket is similar: 73% vs 70% on Predict it

Edit:
I’m surprised Mark Kelly isn’t higher. I know he is from AZ but astronauts have universal appeal like John Glenn in OH

Shapiro will be problematic for a certain voting bloc in Michigan and Minnesota. Winning PA doesn’t matter if you lose MI and MN

My friend says that they can overcome the Jewish problem in MI and MN and that Dems are in bigger trouble in PA.

Predict it has Presidential race tied, 51 for both Trump and Kamala
Polymarket odds are 59 Trump, 39 Harris

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It’s so disappointing how identitarian are these choices: it’s all about representation and not about the quality of the team, coverage of skills, vision.

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