gms
245
I think this observation does not consider the effect of marketing on any mass consumer product.
My take is that pot marketed on a level similar to booze and tobacco would get a significantly larger number of particularly young consumers to try and adopt it. With the associate negative consequences discussed earlier.
A lot of people misunderstand legalizing pot means just eliminating penalties for pot use. But in practice, it really means opening up another consumer segment to corporations that know a thing or two about demand generation and marketing.
Who would competent executives target with their marketing campaigns? Primarily those demographics that hold the key to long term use of the product. In other words, kids.
Pot is forecast to be >$50B globally by 2023 (source)
From the same Statista article:
Where the market is
California had the most sales of legal cannabis in the United States in 2018. Two and a half billion dollars were spent on cannabis in the state. Colorado’s more mature market brought in 1.5 billion. By 2025, California is forecast to be responsible for 27.4 percent of the entire U.S. legal market. The black market is still strong, even in legal states. In California in particular, where the price of a legal gram of marijuana is often substantially higher than black market prices, the total legal and illicit market was roughly 5.6 billion dollars.
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gms
246
John, thank you for a very thoughtful response and excellent review. I added Dutton and Woodley’s book to my pile of stuff to read.
Agreed - for instance prospective armed forced enlistees have to clear a minimum (equivalent) IQ threshold. Here is a short writeup explaining the ASVAB correlation to IQ with a numerical interpretation of 10 USC §520
Translating from percentiles to IQ, the law implies that an IQ below 81 (“tenth percentile”) is disqualifying, and dictates that persons with IQ’s between 81 and 93 (“thirty-first percentile”) cannot comprise more than 20% of all enlistees.
Sadly, it looks like that Mike Judge could see a lot clearer in 2006 than we were prepared to admit. My only disagreement with John’s is that in his 2019 review of Dutton’s book, he calls it a film, while I now call it a documentary.
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CTLaw
248
Perhaps this merits its own “New World Order” thread/category for evidence that the world is preparing for life without the US:
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Precisely! ?What product you know that became cheaper dropped in usage.
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That is not really relevant. The drop in volume was not due to price.
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magus
253
@Devereaux forgot to say ceteris paribus.
Of course, there are some people on the margin who might start using pot if it were legalized, but I think they are few. The majority of people who would use pot if it were legal are already using it. I am doubtful of the ability of companies to gin up demand for a product through marketing alone. If that were true, companies would not spend so much on consumer research and R&D.
The bigger issue to society is the organized crime that accompanies drug trafficking. Violence between gangs spills over into the lives of ordinary citizens. The harm of private drug use, by contrast, is internalized by the drug user. And while I may disapprove of drug use in general, as a matter of civil liberties, I cannot justify putting someone in prison for what he chooses to consume of his own volition.
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But the margins in just where you will see an increase in use. KIDS. They may now be somewhat inhibited by its illegality, so cost, and the lowlifes they have to deal with, but that will change when it is legal - and cheap.
Do NOT expect drug use to go down with legalization. Rather expect it to rise. This can only be countered with pro-active measures. So making more jobs available, but require drug testing. Education & counseling to begin with but repeated episodes lead to firing. NO WELFARE BUT FOR DRUG CLEAN PEOPLE! We can construct a list of useful measures i’m sure.
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?How about Native Americans to control the bison and longhorns. 
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?So since they wrote the statuettes, just how “unfair” was it. Cops do what they’re told. If it was “unfair”, it was the legislators who passed those laws.
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CTLaw
262
While the bison gore the unarmed populace, the ponies kick, the pigs bite, and the cattle stomp.
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gms
263
Bottled water? Y axis is sales volume growth % year over year in the US market (source). And we are talking about a so-called product here that is freely available at high quality in most markets in the US.
I am not sure about this on two levels: one is children/young adults, which seem to be the fastest growing demographic in states where pot was legalized. And second, once pot use morphs into a lifestyle good, marketing will help drive both penetration and volume.
The tobacco companies’ historical playbook is a good indication of some of the tactics: positioning, segmentation, FUD re: side effects and risks, etc. Tobacco use did not start shrinking until the government stepped in and regulated some of the more egregious marketing tactics of the industry.
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gms
264
Perhaps. The fact remains prices dropped, and even if capabilities and features improved, usage shrank.
We know, of course that the reason digital still cameras usage dropped is substitution by built-in cameras on smartphones.
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