I think this observation does not consider the effect of marketing on any mass consumer product.
My take is that pot marketed on a level similar to booze and tobacco would get a significantly larger number of particularly young consumers to try and adopt it. With the associate negative consequences discussed earlier.
A lot of people misunderstand legalizing pot means just eliminating penalties for pot use. But in practice, it really means opening up another consumer segment to corporations that know a thing or two about demand generation and marketing.
Who would competent executives target with their marketing campaigns? Primarily those demographics that hold the key to long term use of the product. In other words, kids.
Pot is forecast to be >$50B globally by 2023 (source)
John, thank you for a very thoughtful response and excellent review. I added Dutton and Woodley’s book to my pile of stuff to read.
Agreed - for instance prospective armed forced enlistees have to clear a minimum (equivalent) IQ threshold. Here is a short writeup explaining the ASVAB correlation to IQ with a numerical interpretation of 10 USC §520
Translating from percentiles to IQ, the law implies that an IQ below 81 (“tenth percentile”) is disqualifying, and dictates that persons with IQ’s between 81 and 93 (“thirty-first percentile”) cannot comprise more than 20% of all enlistees.
Sadly, it looks like that Mike Judge could see a lot clearer in 2006 than we were prepared to admit. My only disagreement with John’s is that in his 2019 review of Dutton’s book, he calls it a film, while I now call it a documentary.
Of course, there are some people on the margin who might start using pot if it were legalized, but I think they are few. The majority of people who would use pot if it were legal are already using it. I am doubtful of the ability of companies to gin up demand for a product through marketing alone. If that were true, companies would not spend so much on consumer research and R&D.
The bigger issue to society is the organized crime that accompanies drug trafficking. Violence between gangs spills over into the lives of ordinary citizens. The harm of private drug use, by contrast, is internalized by the drug user. And while I may disapprove of drug use in general, as a matter of civil liberties, I cannot justify putting someone in prison for what he chooses to consume of his own volition.
But the margins in just where you will see an increase in use. KIDS. They may now be somewhat inhibited by its illegality, so cost, and the lowlifes they have to deal with, but that will change when it is legal - and cheap.
Do NOT expect drug use to go down with legalization. Rather expect it to rise. This can only be countered with pro-active measures. So making more jobs available, but require drug testing. Education & counseling to begin with but repeated episodes lead to firing. NO WELFARE BUT FOR DRUG CLEAN PEOPLE! We can construct a list of useful measures i’m sure.
Mayor Eric Adams is quietly conducting a job search for a first-ever “Cannabis NYC Founding Director” to rep the city’s marijuana interests once the state officially gets legal pot sales going.
One source close to Adams said the mayor is looking for someone to fill the role who has had “lived experiences, understands the industry and has been unfairly targeted in the past by law enforcement to give them an opportunity to be part of the growing cannabis economy.”
“Obviously they have to have experience with marijuana. I don’t know how many people have done that except for out of state people, except maybe drug dealers,” Queens Democratic City Councilman Bob Holden told The Post.
?So since they wrote the statuettes, just how “unfair” was it. Cops do what they’re told. If it was “unfair”, it was the legislators who passed those laws.
Bottled water? Y axis is sales volume growth % year over year in the US market (source). And we are talking about a so-called product here that is freely available at high quality in most markets in the US.
I am not sure about this on two levels: one is children/young adults, which seem to be the fastest growing demographic in states where pot was legalized. And second, once pot use morphs into a lifestyle good, marketing will help drive both penetration and volume.
The tobacco companies’ historical playbook is a good indication of some of the tactics: positioning, segmentation, FUD re: side effects and risks, etc. Tobacco use did not start shrinking until the government stepped in and regulated some of the more egregious marketing tactics of the industry.
