Bitcoin doesn’t have to become a world reserve currency to appreciate vs the dollar 
. The dollar has depreciated since 1913 and 1971. Fractional Reserve banking is inflationary.
3 Likes
Trading bitcoin is easy.
Buy and hold until January 1, 2026.
Wait for bear market to end on December 31, 2026.
Buy on January 1, 2027 and hold for 3 years.
The cycle is predictable because of the halving date, which occurs approximately every 4 years or 210,000 blocks
1 Like
Which it has clearly done since its inception.
My comment was directed at speculation among some* that Trump is talking about some finite Bitcoin investment as a way to completely pay off of the US debt.
* ie those referred to by Scott Adams which he questioned. I was explaining to Adams why his skepticism was correct.
1 Like
Senator Lummis, Wyoming, mentioned something similar. This is the wrong message and rhetoric.
It’s like 1992 Ross Perot supporting spending cuts and tax increases to “balance” the budget
1 Like
Huh? Bringing FedGov budget into balance necessarily involves some actions on a spectrum that runs from cutting spending to increasing revenues. There is only one way to cut spending – and that is to spend less. But there could be several ways to increase revenues. The best way to accomplish that would be to increase the size of the economy by eliminating destructive regulations (which incidentally would reduce spending by eliminating armies of FedGov regulators). Too sensible – not going to happen.
1 Like
Paying off debt or a balanced budget is a a poor excuse for raising taxes.
The goal should be to reduce total spending
Entitlement spending such as Medicare and Social Security have to be privatized in the future. I see no other option.
3 Likes
Social Security is funny. Part of the argument for FedGov taking charge of retirement savings was that we peons were too profligate to be trusted to save. Instead, FedGov would take our money and save it wisely for us. In reality, the Political Class blew the people’s retirement savings, leaving us with the situation we face today.
Yes, entitlement spending needs to be brought under control – but where does that leave the people whose retirement savings were blown by the Political Class?
The easy spending reduction would be a massive (75%+) cut in “defense” spending. A good nuclear deterrent and a well-armed border patrol should take care of the US – let the Rest of the World step up to their own responsibilities.
Then switch from taxes to tariffs, while eliminating mountains of regulations (and regulators) to promote a re-industrialization economic boom that would boost government revenues. But it can only happen after the Coming Collapse sweeps away the current Political Class.
4 Likes
Here we have the answer from FBI to who is Bitcoin inventor …
FBI Will “Neither Confirm Nor Deny” The Existence Of Bitcoin-Creator Satoshi’s Records
Translation: they have no idea who Satoshi is, if they did they would release his name publicly, FOIA request unnecessary
3 Likes
I just found it funny …
and of course FBI will not say …
that the CIA/NSA created Bitcoin
2 Likes
It would be NSA not CIA if I had to bet. NSA has smarter technical ability than CIA especially in 2008
2 Likes
here Martin’s latest take on Bitcoin…
The Federal Reserve is not going to issue a CDBC. All the big banks are creating their own, and then they will be regulated by the Fed. The banks must already report suspicious activity to the Feds. The banks will create the digital currency since they will report “suspicious” activity to the Fed and IRS. If the Fed created a CBDC, they need a search warrant to you into an account where the banks do not.
They have to report suspicious activity now. A very large portion of all financial transactions are tracked now because very little economic activity happens in cash.
Cash as a tool is just another insurance policy that may or may not work given the scenario that plays out. Like gold, Bitcoin or cigarettes, cash is a hopeful means of exchange depending on how things go further south.
No means of exchange will provide the ability to hide from the government. The government already has all the tools it needs to go after any individual it wants. A person only has to envision how they would live such that they are off the governments radar to realize that it is damn near impossible.
Every protection the citizen had versus the government has eroded away. You only have to be accused. No trial needed. The requirement of a warrant is so 1950s. They either don’t need a warrant to spy on you or they can get a warrant in a secret court or they can get a rubber stamped warrant.
They can (and have) frozen bank accounts, confiscated property, jailed individuals without trial and killed individuals with impunity. Often cheered on by members of both mainstream political parties.
“Show me the man and I will show you the crime” is already relatively common in the US. Elon Must is currently a high profile example.
The idea that an unrestrained government can be restrained through voting is about as realistic as believing that the people that provide all the funding required to get a candidate elected will then be taxed. Neither mainstream candidate for president even mentions the need to constrain government.
Given the fact that I believe the US and EU will get their comeuppance and it will not be pretty, I tend to pay attention to people that propose solutions. However, I always ask the same thing. If they are proposing catastrophic conditions is their primary proposed solution to leave the EU and the US? If not and if they don’t live outside the EU or US, I don’t fully trust them. They are likely selling their book (gold, crypto, newsletter, etc).
In the run up to Nazi Germany, you don’t tell Jews to buy gold or diamonds or hold cash. You leave and tell everyone else to leave. It cannot be the government will use Bitcoin to control you and the solution to an oppressive government looking to control you is to buy gold or use cash.
3 Likes
Frying pan - Fire.
Just look at what has happened in countries which maybe a quarter century ago were seen as smart and sensible – like New Zealand. And then look at New Zealand today.
From an individual perspective, there may be a case for making for the upper decks of the Titanic, and hoping that we have a heart attack before the ship sinks. But there is no safe foreign Shangri La waiting for an influx of EuroScum or Yanks. Sometimes we have to carry on, even knowing that we are inevitably going to lose.
3 Likes
This news is maybe of interest to some …
I will NOT say this is the Holy Grail !
But moving to Russia could be an option…
Here the latest news and why it maybe will be possible.
BUT I do agree with Gavin …
I have lived in some countries in Europe (NOT as an expad BUT as a normal working person with my family) and it is NOT easy to move to a foreign country where the language is not one you speak.
So let the Shit Hit The Fan and let the struggle begin …
It will one day be over !
2 Likes